Key Takeaways
- Canaccord Genuity cut its Coinbase price target to $275 from $300 on Oct. 30 but kept its Buy rating. The new target is 94% above the share price, after a [60%] drop over the past year.
- Coinbase’s third-quarter revenue came in slightly below expectations, and Binance’s $6.3 billion hack hit crypto stocks the next morning.
- Analysts’ 2027 earnings estimate for Coinbase has fallen to $3.02 a share from $4.21 three months ago.
- Canaccord’s target works out to about 120x expected earnings over the next year, against a five-year average of 28x, so it looks out of reach until estimates climb again.
Coinbase Global (COIN) has lost 60% of its value over the past year. Even so, Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi kept his Buy rating on Oct. 30 and trimmed his price target to $275 from $300, 94% above today’s $141.66.
Trading dried up
Trading still brings in about half of Coinbase’s revenue, and crypto trading cooled. In the second quarter, consumer transaction revenue fell 31% from a year earlier, as consumer spot volume fell 38%.
Analysts cut their numbers too. The 2026 consensus has gone from a loss of $0.50 a share 90 days ago to a loss of $1.69, and the 2027 estimate has fallen to $3.02 from $4.21.
Third-quarter results on Oct. 29 didn’t turn it around. Revenue of $1.22 billion came in slightly below the $1.23 billion analysts expected, as prediction markets made up for weaker spot trading. Adjusted earnings of $0.27 a share beat the $0.08 consensus, and management trimmed its 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $4.15-$4.30 billion.
Then, late Thursday, Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, said on X that a hack had an estimated impact of about $6.3 billion. Crypto stocks fell with bitcoin this morning.
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on Coinbase. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coinbase, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coinbase’s Analyst Ratings
Canaccord is sticking with the share story
Canaccord said it remains encouraged by Coinbase’s execution. When it cut its target to $300 from $400 in February, the firm said Coinbase “is taking incremental share while it continues to expand its service offerings.”
The third quarter backs that up. Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume rose to 10.7%, its fourth straight quarterly gain, and prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue.
Does $275 add up?
The rest of the Street is less bullish. The consensus target was $211 on Oct. 29, down from $380 a year earlier:
Targets from the 38 analysts covering Coinbase ran from $110 to $300 that day, and most firms that weighed in after the report cut theirs. Canaccord’s $275 sits 30% above the consensus.
Earnings estimates came down with the targets:
The 2027 estimate is up from $2.84 a month ago, and the lower expense outlook could push it higher.
The valuation is the bigger problem. Coinbase traded at 70x expected earnings over the next 12 months at the Oct. 29 close, against a five-year average of 28x:
Divide Canaccord’s $275 by the $2.30 a share analysts expect over the next 12 months, and you get about 120x, more than four times that average.
I’d wait for the estimates to turn
Coinbase’s revenue still rises and falls with crypto prices and trading, and Binance’s hack shows how fast both can turn.
My take: Coinbase is executing well, but Canaccord’s target needs about 120x earnings on 2027 estimates that fell by more than a quarter in three months. I’m not paying up for that rebound yet.
Fourth-quarter results, likely in February, will show whether trading is coming back. If it is, and the 2027 estimate climbs back toward $4.21, $275 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Coinbase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
