Key Stats for Citigroup Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +5%
- 52-Week Range: $55.1 to $125.2
- Current Price: $114.3
What Happened?
Citigroup stock (C) trades at $114.34, sitting 8.6% below its 52-week high of $125.16, yet the bank’s accelerating divestiture execution and surging ROTCE trajectory argue that the gap between current price and intrinsic value is narrowing faster than the market has priced in.
Specifically, the February 18 sale of AO Citibank to Renaissance Capital completed Citi’s full Russia exit and delivered an estimated $4.0 billion CET1 capital benefit in Q1, a move that Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said reinforces his call that the bank will exit its consent order in 2026.
The mechanics behind that re-rating rest on CEO Jane Fraser’s six-year transformation plan reaching 80% completion, with Citi simultaneously closing a $2.5 billion Banamex stake sale to investors including Blackstone, General Atlantic, and Qatar Investment Authority on February 24, stripping away the legacy complexity that has suppressed the stock for years.
Consequently, the market is beginning to reclassify Citi from a restructuring story into an execution story, as the bank printed a 63% efficiency ratio in 2025 down from 66% in 2024 and is guiding to approximately 60% in 2026, signaling a firm that is finally converting strategic promises into compounding operating leverage.
Incoming CFO Gonzalo Luchetti stated at the Bank of America Financial Services Conference on February 11 that “the 13 quarters of positive operating leverage allowed us to bring the operating efficiency down from 57% then to 53%, then to 49%,” contextualizing how the U.S. Personal Banking division drove its full-year ROTCE to north of 13% in 2025 after printing just 5.5% in 2024.
Additionally, multiple senior insiders including Head of International Ernesto Torres Cantú, Head of U.S. Consumer Cards Pamela Habner, and incoming CFO Gonzalo Luchetti filed share disposals on February 14, consistent with routine tax-related selling tied to equity-heavy compensation packages following Citigroup’s 65.8% stock surge in 2025.
Meanwhile, Citi’s simultaneous build-out of its AI infrastructure banking unit, its $18.0 billion card business anchored by Costco and American Airlines, and its wealth franchise targeting $5.0 trillion in client assets positions the bank to close the persistent valuation discount to peers and compete directly for the re-rating that JPMorgan and Goldman have already achieved.
Wall Street’s Take on C Stock
Citi’s completed Russia exit, $2.5 billion Banamex stake sale, and incoming consent order resolution collectively remove the three biggest overhangs that have suppressed the stock’s multiple for years, directly clearing the path toward accelerating earnings conversion.
The fundamental engine supports that re-rating, with revenue estimated to grow 6.3% in 2026 after 5.0% in 2025, EPS normalized surging 35.0% to $10.2, and net income margins expanding from 16.5% to 19.5%, confirming the business is firmly in acceleration mode.
Also expectedly, Wall Street stands decisively bullish, with 12 buys, 6 outperforms, 4 holds, and just 1 underperform among 22 analysts, pointing to a mean price target of $134.8 — implying 17.9% upside from the current $114.3 as analysts upgrade into a cleaner, leaner franchise.
The spread between the analyst low of $104.0 and high of $152.0 is wide enough to matter, with the bear case hinging on consent order delays or multiple compression, while the bull case requires the upcoming Investor Day to deliver a credible ROTCE roadmap beyond the 10% to 11% guided for 2026.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given the divestiture completions and accelerating margin expansion now visible in the numbers, TIKR’s mid-case model prices C at $154.3, implying a 35.0% total return over 4.8 years at a 6.4% annualized IRR, a return profile that becomes more credible with each legacy overhang removed.
The most consequential risk remains P/E multiple compression, with the valuation model projecting a 4.9% annual P/E contraction in the mid case through 2030, meaning the earnings growth story must fully offset a shrinking multiple for the stock to hit its targets.
At $114.3, Citigroup looks moderately undervalued given the accelerating EPS trajectory and clearing of legacy overhangs, but the upcoming Investor Day is the single most important event to watch, as a credible return framework above 11% ROTCE could be the moment the market finally grants this franchise the re-rating it has long resisted.
Should You Invest in Citigroup Inc.?
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