Key Stats for Carrier Global Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 16%
- 52-Week Range: $50 to $81
- Valuation Model Target Price: $81
- Implied Upside: 32%
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What Happened?
Carrier Global stock is up about 16% year to date, recently trading near $62 per share as investors have leaned into accelerating data center momentum and improving second half margin expectations. While shares dipped 3% over the past week, broader 2026 sentiment remains constructive.
The rally has been driven primarily by strong commercial HVAC execution and explosive growth in data center cooling. Fourth quarter applied data center orders were up 400%, and management expects that business to grow another 50% in 2026.
At the same time, Americas CSA incrementals are projected to exceed 40% in the second half as residential comparisons ease, reinforcing the idea that mix shift toward higher margin commercial and cooling systems can offset residential weakness.
This week at Citi’s Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference, CEO David Gitlin reaffirmed that first quarter and full year 2026 guidance remain unchanged despite 3 to 4 points of market headwinds, stating “our data center orders in 4Q for the applied business was up 400%.”
Management emphasized share gains in high capacity chillers, new liquid cooling CDUs, and expanding aftermarket penetration, where Carrier currently captures only about 25% of its installed base.
Institutional positioning has been active. Edentree Asset Management initiated a 122,000 share position worth about $7 million, while Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB increased its stake by 195% to 481,000 shares valued at $29 million.
NEOS Investment Management raised its holdings by 47%, and Summitry LLC increased its position to over 1 million shares.
Although Fiera Capital trimmed 226,000 shares and ABN Amro Investment Solutions reduced its stake by 54%, filings reflect selective profit taking rather than broad distribution as the stock rallies.
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Is Carrier GlobalUndervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4%
- Operating Margins: 17%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 21x
Carrier’s growth outlook reflects steady expansion tied to electrification trends, HVAC replacement cycles, and rising global demand for data center thermal management.
Share gains in high capacity chillers and liquid cooling systems position the company to benefit from structural data center buildouts, while aftermarket penetration and system level offerings create margin expansion opportunities.
Over the next 12 months, performance will likely be driven by backlog conversion in commercial HVAC, continued 20% to 25% chiller market growth, 50% expected expansion in data center revenue, and over 40% incremental margins in CSA as residential comparisons normalize.
Europe remains pressured, but new mid tier heat pump launches and stabilizing subsidy expectations could support recovery into 2026.
Free cash flow discipline and $1.5 billion in planned buybacks further support per share earnings growth even if headline residential volumes remain soft.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $81 per share, implying about 32% total upside over the next few years, suggesting the stock appears undervalued at current levels.
At current levels near $62 per share, Carrier appears undervalued, with 2026 performance increasingly driven by commercial mix shift, data center cooling share gains, and operating leverage rather than a broad cyclical rebound.
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