Key Stats for Chevron Stock
- Current Price: $205.27
- Target Price (Mid): ~$219
- Street Target: ~$218
- Potential Total Return: ~7%
- Annualized IRR: ~1.5% / year
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What Happened?
Chevron Corporation (CVX) closed at $205.27 on August 21, within a few dollars of its record closing high and up about 35% since the year began. The stock has clawed back nearly the entire summer selloff, and on August 19, Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $218 from $210, a call for a fresh high. Two days earlier, Barclays moved the other way, trimming to $208. The split matters because the average Street target of $217.88 now sits barely 6% above the last close.
The Run Was Built on Crude, and Crude Is the Whole Risk
Chevron is close to a pure bet on the oil price, and 2026 has proved it both ways. Shares bottomed at a 52-week low of $146.49 late last year when WTI sat around $60, then rode crude above $100 as the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz threatened roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. When ceasefire hopes cooled the barrel, CVX gave back more than 20% from its 52-week high of $214.71, printing a 21.53% peak-to-trough drawdown on July 1. Renewed doubts about a clean reopening of Hormuz have since rebuilt the premium, and the stock has climbed back toward records with it.
Buying at $205 is, in large part, a bet that the oil premium holds. There is one real offset. On the Q2 call, President of New Energies Jeff Gustavson detailed a 20-year, 2.67-gigawatt take-or-pay power agreement with Microsoft, Project Kilby, which he said would deliver “mid-teens returns and long-duration contracted cash flows that are independent of commodity price cycles.” It is small today, but it is the first piece of a revenue stream that does not move with the barrel.
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A Quarter That Left Little to Complain About
Second-quarter earnings landed July 31 at $6.11 per share, with adjusted EPS of $6.06, beating the Street’s $5.57. Revenue of $70.1 billion beat by 16%, free cash flow of $18.1 billion came in nearly 25% above expectations, and the company hit a U.S. production record near 2.1 million barrels per day while reaching its $3 billion cost target six months early. On August 17, Chevron added an oil and gas condensate discovery at the 105-4X well in Angola’s Block 0, a low-cost tieback to existing facilities. CEO Mike Wirth called the current slate “the largest and highest quality opportunity set that we’ve had in years.”
Against peers, Chevron is not expensive. It trades at 6.05x NTM EV/EBITDA, roughly in line with Saudi Aramco at 7.00x and above TotalEnergies at 4.89x. Its 13.26x forward P/E lands between Aramco’s 14.88x and TotalEnergies’ 8.77x, a valuation the market supports for a low-leverage balance sheet and a 3.5% dividend yield backed by a 67% payout.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $205.27
- Target Price (Mid): ~$219
- Potential Total Return: ~7%
- Annualized IRR: ~1.5% / year
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The run has done the damage a buyer should worry about: it has spent the upside. Using its mid-case assumptions, the TIKR Valuation Model puts fair value at around $219, a potential total return of roughly 7%, and an annualized return of only about 1.5% per year to 2030. At $186 in late July, the same math looked ordinary. At $205, the gap to fair value has nearly closed, which is the real cost of chasing the rally.
- Revenue drivers: the Hess assets, now throwing off free cash flow roughly double the incremental dividends, with Guyana extending high-margin growth into the 2030s; and the shale portfolio, where the Permian has held above 1 million barrels per day for five straight quarters as capex per barrel falls 25%.
- Margin driver: structural cost discipline, with more than 70% of the $3 billion in savings coming from efficiency gains management believes will stick.
- Primary risk: a durable reopening of Hormuz that unwinds the oil premium and pressures realizations.
- Upside: crude stays firm, Kilby scales into further contracts, and exploration converts, pushing toward the model’s high case.
- Downside: oil normalizes lower, leaving a well-run dividend payer that a buyer at $205 has paid full price for.
Conclusion
One variable decides this, and it reports every day. Watch Brent and the Hormuz headlines into Chevron’s Q3 print, expected in late October. Hold crude near current levels and the Q2 cash story repeats, giving the stock a reason to test $218. Reopen Hormuz cleanly and send crude back toward the $80s, and the same oil leverage that drove the 35% run works in reverse. The dividend gets paid either way. The capital gain is the part riding entirely on a barrel of oil.
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Should You Invest in Chevron?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Chevron, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Chevron alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
