Key Takeaways:
- Nebius and Iren trade at nearly identical forward revenue multiples, 8.92 times versus 8.97 times, even though Nebius is the larger, faster-scaling business.
- Consensus estimates show Nebius revenue growing from $3.35 billion in 2026 to $53.23 billion by 2030, while Iren revenue is projected to grow from $720 million to $14.61 billion over the same stretch.
- Management at both companies says demand is outpacing supply, with Nebius citing more than $40 billion in contracted backlog and Iren saying all of its operational capacity is already fully contracted.
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AI infrastructure has become one of the most crowded trades on Wall Street, and two names keep popping up in that conversation: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and Iren Limited (IREN).
Neither company turns a profit yet. Both are spending billions of dollars building out data centers to feed the world’s appetite for AI computing power. And both have seen their stocks swing wildly as investors try to figure out which one has the better shot at becoming the next big cloud infrastructure winner.
So which one does the Street actually trust more? The answer isn’t found in a price target alone. It shows up in revenue forecasts, spending patterns, and how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of sales.
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What Nebius and Iren actually do
Nebius started as the AI and cloud computing arm of Yandex, sometimes called Russia’s answer to Google, before spinning off into its own publicly traded company.
Today it builds GPU cloud infrastructure, essentially massive data centers packed with Nvidia chips that AI companies rent by the hour to train and run their models.
Iren has a very different origin story. It began as a Bitcoin mining company, using cheap renewable power to run computers that solve complex math problems for cryptocurrency rewards.
Now it’s pivoting hard into AI, converting mining sites and building new campuses to host GPU clusters for AI customers instead.
Both companies are effectively landlords for the AI boom. They secure power, build data centers, and rent out computing capacity to AI labs, enterprises, and even Nvidia itself.
Forget earnings, focus on this instead
Traditional stock metrics like price-to-earnings ratios don’t work well here because neither company is consistently profitable yet. That’s normal for businesses in heavy build-out mode.
Instead, analysts lean on a different scorecard: how fast revenue is expected to grow, whether margins are improving as scale kicks in, how much cash is being burned to fund construction, and enterprise value relative to revenue, known as EV to Revenue.
That last one tells you how expensive a stock is relative to the sales it’s actually generating, which matters a lot more than earnings when a company is still scaling up.
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What Wall Street expects for revenue
Consensus estimates compiled by TIKR.com show both companies expected to grow sharply through the end of the decade, though from very different starting points.
Nebius is projected to grow revenue from $3.35 billion in 2026 to $53.23 billion by 2030, according to TIKR.com data. That’s roughly a sixteenfold jump over four years.
Iren, which runs on a fiscal year ending June 30, is expected to grow revenue from $720 million in fiscal 2026 to $14.61 billion by fiscal 2030, per TIKR.com estimates, a jump of about twenty times.
Both companies are also projected to keep burning heavy cash well into the back half of the decade as they pour money into GPUs and construction, though TIKR.com data shows that burn is expected to shrink as revenue scales up, particularly for Nebius by 2030.
Valuation tells its own story
Here’s where things get interesting. Despite very different sizes and growth paths, the two stocks are priced almost identically on a forward revenue basis.
Nebius currently trades at 8.92 times forward revenue, compared to a historical average of 5.98 times, according to TIKR.com valuation data.
Iren trades at 8.97 times forward revenue, versus its own historical average of 4.04 times.
Both stocks have traded well above and below those levels. Nebius has swung as high as 31.11 times revenue and as low as negative 0.07 times, while Iren has ranged from 17.47 times down to 0.56 times, TIKR.com data shows.
That kind of volatility reflects just how uncertain investors remain about how this AI infrastructure story ultimately plays out.
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What management is telling investors
Executives at both companies sound confident, even as they acknowledge the scale of what they’re building.
On Nebius’ second quarter 2026 earnings call, held Aug. 12, 2026, the company said group revenue grew 454% year over year to $582 million, with annualized run rate revenue hitting $3 billion, up nearly sixfold from a year earlier.
Management pointed to more than $40 billion in contracted backlog and said it closed four separate deals worth over $1 billion each during the quarter, all from AI companies competing for capacity.
Iren told a similar story on its fiscal third quarter 2026 call, held May 7, 2026. The company said it had secured 5 gigawatts of power capacity and signed a $3.4 billion, five-year AI cloud contract with Nvidia, part of a broader partnership in which Nvidia is investing $2.1 billion directly into Iren’s buildout.
Management stressed that all of its operational capacity was already fully contracted, meaning demand is outpacing what it can physically build.
The bottom line for investors
Right now, Wall Street is pricing Nebius and Iren almost the same way on a revenue-multiple basis, even though Nebius is the larger, faster-scaling business in dollar terms. That suggests investors see comparable risk and opportunity in both names, just packaged differently: one a cloud native AI builder, the other a Bitcoin miner reinventing itself.
Neither bet is for the faint of heart. Both companies are burning serious cash, and both are betting that today’s AI infrastructure shortage lasts long enough to justify the spending. For now, the market seems willing to give both companies the benefit of the doubt.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
