Key Takeaways for Boeing Stock as of September 2026
- Three-Year Standstill: Boeing (BA) stock has returned just 0.6% since September 2023, a 0.2% annualized rate, even after Q2 deliveries climbed to 171 aircraft, the company’s best quarterly total since 2018.
- Street Repricing: Analysts carry 18 buy ratings, 5 outperforms, 5 holds and 1 underperform on the stock, and the mean target of $275 sits 30% above the $211 close.
- Model Divergence: TIKR’s mid-case model targets $1,490 for Boeing stock by December 2030, implying 607% total return, or 57% annualized, over the next 4.3 years.
- Pending Catalyst: The Pentagon may pick Boeing or Northrop for F/A-XX within weeks.
Why Boeing Stock Has Returned Just 0.6% Since 2023
Boeing (BA) stock has returned just 0.6% since September 2023, a 0.2% annualized rate that leaves the stock roughly where it traded three years ago at $211, even though the company just posted its best quarterly delivery total since 2018.
Boeing delivered 171 airplanes in the second quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly figure since 2018, and revenue rose 8% to $24.6 billion. The backlog reached a record $715 billion companywide, and the commercial division alone carries more than 6,200 airplanes on order. None of that has moved the stock past where it sat three years ago.
CFO Jay Malave explained the disconnect between rising deliveries and flat program economics on the Q2 earnings call: “Certainly, today, we’re at depressed levels, slightly above breakeven both 737 and 787, and that’s largely due to these pricing drags that I talked and walked you through in January.” Those legacy contracts, signed to win orders during Boeing’s weakest years, still eat into the cash each new jet generates.
The costs keep piling up elsewhere too. Boeing booked a $280 million charge on the VC-25B Air Force One program in the quarter after adding engineering resources to protect a 2028 delivery date, and it paid a $3.1 million FAA fine in January tied to the 2024 Alaska Airlines door-plug blowout, a penalty the agency only disclosed publicly this month. A fatal crash of an Amazon-branded cargo 767 in Miami on September 6 renewed the safety scrutiny that has weighed on the stock’s multiple since 2024, even though the 32-year-old freighter was operated by a third party, 21 Air, not flown by a current-production Boeing jet.
August deliveries slipped to 51 airplanes from 57 a year earlier, with 787 handovers falling to four from nine. The ramp isn’t linear, even with certification hurdles clearing.
Every one of these items is small next to a $24.6 billion quarterly top line. Stacked together, they’re enough to keep investors from paying up for a backlog that has never been fuller, and that’s why Boeing stock has essentially stood still since 2023.
The F/A-XX Decision Could Break Boeing Stock’s Range
That standstill could end soon. The Pentagon has decided which company will build the U.S. Navy’s next-generation F/A-XX stealth fighter and could announce the winner within weeks, pitting Boeing against Northrop Grumman for a contract that comparable programs suggest is worth tens of billions of dollars over its lifetime. Congress has already earmarked $750 million for the program in 2025 and another $1.4 billion in fiscal 2026, and the Navy needs a carrier-capable replacement for its aging F/A-18 fleet before the 2030s.
A win would hand Boeing’s defense unit a multi-decade production program just as its margins recover from years of fixed-price losses. A loss would extend Boeing’s absence from a new fighter award and leave near-term growth entirely to the commercial side of the business.
Boeing Stock’s Price Targets Keep Climbing While the Stock Sits Still
Wall Street remains firmly bullish on Boeing stock. Analysts carry 18 buy ratings, 5 outperform ratings, 5 hold ratings and 1 underperform rating on the stock as of September 8. Separately, 26 analysts publish a price target, and their mean sits at $275, which is 30% above Boeing’s $211 close.
That gap has only widened. On June 30, 2025, the mean target stood at $224 against a $210 close, a target-to-price ratio of 107%. Five quarters later, the mean target has climbed to $275, a 23% increase, while the stock’s quarterly closes have stayed in a narrow band between $199 and $217 over the same stretch. The ratio now sits at 130%, and it touched as high as 136% in March 2026.
Coverage has grown too, from 22 analysts publishing targets in September 2025 to 26 today. Analysts have kept raising the bar even as the price refused to follow, which is exactly the dynamic behind Boeing stock’s three-year standstill.
TIKR Values Boeing Stock at $1,490 by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Boeing stock at $1,490 by December 2030, implying 607% total return from the current price of $211, or 57% annualized over the next 4.3 years.
A return path like that would place Boeing among the most aggressive re-rating stories the model tracks across the aerospace and defense sector, well beyond what a gradual delivery ramp alone typically produces.
The model’s case rests on Boeing converting its record backlog into the earnings power management laid out on the Q2 call: 737 production climbing from 47 to 52 airplanes a month, and 787 output stabilizing at rate 10 as the defense unit’s margins recover toward high single digits by the decade’s end. That earnings ramp off today’s depressed base is what closes the gap between a stock still stuck at 2023 prices and a Street mean target that has already climbed 23% over five quarters.
Should You Invest in The Boeing Company?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
