Key Stats for Palantir Technologies Stock
- 30-Day Performance: -27%
- 52-Week Range: $66 to $208
- Valuation Model Target Price: $369
- Implied Upside: 181%
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What Happened?
Palantir Technologies stock fell about 27% in the last 30 days, recently trading near $131 per share, as investors rotated out of high-multiple AI stocks and compressed valuation levels following a sharp rally earlier in the year. The pullback reflects multiple contraction rather than weakening fundamentals.
The stock declined even after Palantir delivered historic Q4 results because expectations had already risen significantly and shares had previously traded near their $208 52-week high.
Revenue surged 70% year over year to $1.407 billion, driven by 93% growth in U.S. revenue to $1.076 billion and 137% growth in U.S. commercial revenue to $507 million.
The company reported GAAP EPS of $0.24, closed a record $4.3 billion in total contract value bookings, and posted net dollar retention of 139%.
CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “one of the truly iconic performances in the history of corporate performance,” while CFO Dave Glazer guided to full-year 2026 revenue of about $7.190 billion at the midpoint, representing 61% growth.
Despite these results, elevated valuation levels made the stock sensitive to broader market risk appetite.
Even as total remaining deal value reached $11.2 billion and adjusted operating margin expanded to 57% in Q4, investors appear to be recalibrating what multiple they are willing to pay for rapid AI-driven growth.
Institutional positioning has remained mixed rather than decisively negative. Recent filings showed new positions from WJ Financial Advisors and Hanover Advisors, while Varma Mutual Pension Insurance increased its stake to 314,000 shares worth about $57 million.
Although some firms trimmed holdings in Q3, institutional ownership remains around 45.65%, suggesting the recent decline reflects valuation reset rather than deterioration in Palantir’s business performance.
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Is Palantir Technologies Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 47.3%
- Operating Margins: 58.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 99.7x
Revenue acceleration is being driven by expanding AI adoption across commercial enterprises and government agencies.
U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% year over year in Q4, and management guided U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.144 billion in 2026, reflecting deeper enterprise penetration and faster production-level deployments.
This supports the view that Palantir’s growth increasingly depends on expanding deal sizes, higher average revenue per customer, and broader AIP adoption across departments rather than isolated pilot programs.
Operating leverage remains a powerful driver. Adjusted operating margin reached 57% in Q4, full-year adjusted free cash flow totaled $2.27 billion, and net dollar retention of 139% indicates strong expansion within the installed base.
Government demand provides additional durability. U.S. government revenue grew 66% year over year in Q4, and total remaining deal value reached $11.2 billion, supporting revenue visibility heading into 2026.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $369, implying about 181% total upside over roughly 2.9 years. At current levels near $131, the stock appears undervalued if Palantir sustains high-margin AI expansion and converts backlog into continued revenue acceleration.
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