Key Stats for Airbnb Stock
- 52-Week Range: $110.81 to $150.88
- Current Price: $146.86
- Street Mean Target: $157.09
- NTM P/E: 28.6x
- LTM Gross Margin: 82.9%
- Net Cash: $9.5 billion
- Market Cap: $87.2 billion
A Quarter Worth Paying Attention To
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Airbnb (ABNB) revenue came in at $2.678 billion in Q1, up 18% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance. Gross Booking Value reached $29.2 billion, up 19%, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to $519 million.
Nights and Seats Booked grew 9% to 156.2 million, and first-time booker growth accelerated to 10%, the highest rate since early 2022. Momentum in international markets was particularly notable: origin nights in India grew roughly 50% year-over-year, Brazil posted over 20% growth for the third consecutive quarter, and nearly 200,000 guests stayed on Airbnb during the Milan Winter Olympics with supply in host markets growing around 30%.
Revenue has compounded steadily since the platform emerged from the pandemic, and the forward consensus reflects continued acceleration.
Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to low-to-mid teens revenue growth, with Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to reach at least 35%.
Consensus projects revenue growing from $12.2 billion in 2025 toward $14 billion in 2026 and approaching $20.4 billion by 2030.
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What Makes the Business Model Compelling
Airbnb operates one of the highest-margin platforms in consumer technology. With an 82.9% gross margin and $4.5 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow at a 36% margin, the underlying economics are exceptional.
The company holds $9.5 billion in net cash and has been systematically buying back shares, reducing its fully diluted share count from 677 million in early 2024 to 641 million today.
Beyond the core home-sharing business, Airbnb is expanding into experiences, services, and boutique hotels, with early data suggesting these adjacent products are pulling new guests onto the platform.
Nearly a quarter of guests who book an experience and are new to Airbnb go on to book a stay, and around 55% of guests who book a hotel on Airbnb come back to book a home.
AI is also becoming a meaningful operational lever, with nearly 60% of engineer code now co-authored with AI tools and 40% of customer support issues resolved without a human agent.
The EPS trajectory is worth understanding carefully. Normalized EPS spiked to $7.24 in 2023 before pulling back to around $4 in 2024 and 2025, which can look like deterioration but actually reflects deliberate reinvestment in sales and marketing, international expansion, and AI infrastructure. Consensus expects that investment to translate into resuming earnings growth from here.
Estimates project EPS climbing from around $5.03 in 2026 to $6.02 in 2027 and approaching $10.30 by 2030, a trajectory that underpins the valuation model’s optimism.
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What Does the Valuation Model Say?
At around $147, the TIKR valuation model presents a genuinely compelling case that stands out compared to most of what we have looked at today.
The mid-case assumes revenue growth of around 9% annually with net income margins expanding toward 27%, arriving at a target price of around $319 over the next four-plus years, approximately 19% per year annualized.
Most of that return is driven by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion; the model assumes only mild multiple compression of less than 1% annually.
The low case arrives at around $382 at roughly 12% per year, and the high case reaches around $672 at roughly 20% per year.
Across all three scenarios, the return profile is more attractive than virtually any other stock covered in this session, and the scenario range skews meaningfully to the upside.
Should You Buy Airbnb Stock?
Airbnb is building something genuinely difficult to replicate. The platform has over 5.5 million hosts, nearly $9.5 billion in net cash, and an expanding set of adjacent products pulling new users into the ecosystem. The Q1 results and raised guidance suggest the growth reacceleration is real, not a one-quarter anomaly.
For investors willing to look out four or five years, the TIKR mid-case arriving at around 19% annualized returns makes Airbnb one of the more interesting setups in consumer internet right now.
The Street’s mean target of around $157 is conservative relative to what the model suggests, and the gap between current prices and mid-case fair value is wide enough to offer a genuine margin of safety.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
