Key Stats for Disney Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -2%
- 52-week Range: $80 to $125
- Valuation Model Target Price: $143
- Implied Upside: 28.6% over ~2.7 years
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What Happened?
The Walt Disney Company stock (DIS) fell about 2% over the past week, trading relatively flat early before declining in the final sessions, with shares ending near $110 per share and toward the lower end of their recent range.
The decline followed renewed analyst pressure, after a major Wall Street firm lowered its price target on Disney, prompting investors to reassess near-term upside.
Price-target cuts often act as short-term catalysts, especially when a stock is consolidating after a strong rebound, and contributed to selling later in the week.
While the revision did not change Disney’s long-term outlook, it pressured near-term sentiment given the stock’s recovery from 2024 lows and the absence of fresh positive catalysts during the week.
Selling pressure was further compounded by news that a senior executive overseeing Disney’s Latin America operations is departing, introducing short-term uncertainty around regional execution and reinforcing cautious positioning ahead of earnings.
Despite these headwinds, the pullback occurred alongside continued positive coverage around improving streaming profitability, studio momentum, and long-term park investments, suggesting the move reflected near-term sentiment and positioning, rather than a shift in Disney’s underlying business trajectory.
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Is Disney Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 5.0%
- Operating Margins: 19.9%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 16.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $143 per share, implying 28.6% total upside from around $111 per share over roughly 2.7 years.
Looking ahead, results are shaped by whether Experiences sustains strong per-capita guest spending through pricing and new attractions, while Disney+ and Hulu continue converting advertising growth, bundling, and lower content spending into consistent profitability.
Another important swing factor sits with ESPN, where progress on direct-to-consumer distribution, advertising demand, and partnership structure could materially improve earnings durability and long-term free cash flow.
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