Key Takeaways:
- Asset Rotation: Acciona (ANA) is aggressively unlocking value, having secured €2 billion in disposals since the start of its strategy, including the sale of hydro assets in Spain and wind farms in Peru.
- Price Projection: Our model projects the stock could recover to €239 per share by December 2027.
- Expected Returns: This target implies a solid 12.0% annualized return, suggesting the current sell-off has created an attractive entry point for contrarian investors.
- Infrastructure Boom: The non-energy business is thriving, with a record construction backlog of €19 billion and major wins like the Central West Orana transmission line in Australia.
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Acciona (ANA) has been battered by the “higher for longer” interest rate environment, but the underlying business is adapting fast.
The Spanish conglomerate is executing a dual strategy: stabilizing its renewable energy arm (Acciona Energía) through asset sales while leaning into the booming infrastructure sector. Management has successfully executed €2 billion in asset disposals to deleverage, including a capital gain-generating sale of a wind farm in Peru to a subsidiary of China Three Gorges.
Meanwhile, the Infrastructure division is hitting new heights. The company boasts a €19 billion construction backlog and has solidified its position in the supply chain through its stake in Nordex, which has emerged as the fourth-largest non-Chinese wind turbine manufacturer globally.
With the stock trading around €191.50, the market seems to be pricing in continued headwinds. But with rates potentially peaking and the asset rotation plan delivering cash, is the worst over?
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What the Model Says for ANA Stock
We evaluated Acciona’s potential through 2027, factoring in a recovery in renewable energy valuations and the steady execution of its infrastructure book.
Our model signals a “Buy.” Using a forecast of 2.9% Revenue Growth (CAGR) and 7.3% Operating Margins, the model projects the stock could rebound to €239 by the end of 2027.
This implies a 12.0% annualized return over the next two years.
This return profile assumes a “mean reversion” in valuation. If the market begins to value Acciona as a growth-oriented renewable/infrastructure hybrid again, rather than a distressed utility, the multiple expansion will drive significant returns.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ANA stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 2.9%
While the renewable energy sector faces short-term volatility (leading Acciona to pause some battery projects in Texas), the long-term trend remains intact. Management noted that 90% of global capacity installed last year came from renewables, confirming the structural shift.
In infrastructure, the growth is visible. The company is executing on massive, complex projects, with management highlighting the Central West Orana transmission line in Australia and the Line 6 metro project in São Paulo as key drivers of progress.
We forecast conservative revenue growth of 2.9% CAGR through 2027, balancing the rapid growth in infrastructure backlog against the divestments in energy.
2. Operating Margins: 7.3%
The company is actively managing costs and capital. By selling mature assets and recycling that capital into higher-return development projects, Acciona aims to maintain healthy margins. The Nordex turnaround is also a key margin driver, as the turbine maker returns to “stable pricing” and margin recovery.
We project operating margins to hold at 7.3%, reflecting the mixed nature of the portfolio (lower-margin construction vs. higher-margin energy generation).
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 22.7x
Acciona currently trades at a depressed P/E of 12.5x.
Our model assumes an exit multiple of 22.7x by 2027.
This is an aggressive assumption that drives the bulk of the return. It relies on the belief that once interest rates stabilize and the asset rotation proves successful, investors will once again pay a premium for Acciona’s green credentials and growth pipeline. If this re-rating does not occur, upside will be limited.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
The stock is highly sensitive to market sentiment and interest rates (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If rates remain high and the “green premium” disappears permanently, the stock could tumble, with our model showing a potential -10.3% annual return as the multiple contracts further.
- Mid Case: If the recovery is slower than expected (no massive re-rating), the stock could still face a -6.8% annual return, highlighting the risk if the current valuation becomes the “new normal”.
- High Case: Only in a bullish scenario where the market fully embraces the renewable growth story again do we see positive returns, potentially reaching 4.8% annual return in a conservative advanced scenario (Note: The Guided Model above is more optimistic than these advanced scenarios, banking heavily on multiple expansion).
(Investor Note: There is a significant divergence between the Guided Model [12% return] and the Advanced Scenarios [negative return]. This indicates the investment thesis rests almost entirely on the P/E multiple expanding back to historical highs of ~20x. Proceed with caution.)
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How Much Upside Does Acciona Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
