Key Takeaways:
- Agentic Commerce Leadership: Visa is setting industry standards for AI-powered transactions with its Trusted Agent Protocol and Intelligent Commerce platform.
- Price Projection: Based on current momentum, the stock could reach $437 by September 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 33% from the current price of $328.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 11% annual growth over the next 2.7 years.
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Visa (V) just wrapped up fiscal 2025 with revenues climbing 11% and processed transactions hitting 258 billion—a 10% jump year-on-year.
But the real story isn’t in last year’s numbers. It’s in how Visa is positioning itself at the center of three massive shifts: agentic commerce, stablecoins, and value-added services.
The company now processes over 700 billion API calls annually and has expanded its network to 12 billion endpoints.
With Q4 net revenue growing 12% year over year to $10.7 billion, Visa is proving it can scale while maintaining industry-leading margins.
Despite this momentum, V stock trades at $328, offering upside for investors who understand the transformation underway.
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What the Model Says for Visa Stock
We analyzed Visa through the lens of its evolution from a payment network into what CEO Ryan McInerney calls a “hyperscaler” for the entire payments ecosystem.
The company’s Visa-as-a-Service stack is expanding beyond traditional card processing into agentic commerce, stablecoin settlement, and comprehensive value-added services, which now account for nearly 30% of revenue.
Using a forecast of 10.3% annual revenue growth and 68% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $437 within 2.7 years. This assumes a 23x Price-to-Earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Visa’s current P/E of 25.7x. As the company continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure and new product development, multiple compressions make sense.
The real value lies in sustained market-share gains across consumer payments, commercial solutions, and value-added services.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for V stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.3% Visa’s growth engine runs on multiple cylinders that are all firing simultaneously.
Core Payments Volume: U.S. payments volume grew 8% in Q4, with both credit and debit up 8%. Consumer spending remained resilient across all spend bands, with higher-spending cardholders driving the fastest growth.
Cross-Border Strength: Total cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe grew 11% year-over-year. E-commerce remained particularly strong, with 13% growth, and now represents 40% of total cross-border volume, up from one-third pre-COVID. Travel spend improved to 10% growth, benefiting from commercial volumes and virtual card adoption.
Value-Added Services Acceleration: VAS revenue surged 25% in constant dollars to $3 billion, driven by issuing solutions, advisory services, and pricing. This segment has grown from 20% of revenue a few years ago to nearly 30% today, while maintaining mid-20s growth rates.
Commercial and Money Movement: CMS revenue grew 14% year-over-year, with Visa Direct transactions up 27% to 12.6 billion for the full year. The company won Trip.com’s global virtual travel card business and expanded into India’s first corporate forex prepaid card.
2. Operating margins: 68%
Visa operates at industry-leading margins with significant room for efficiency gains.
Current Performance: Q4 operating margins came in strong, driven by revenue growth that outpaced expense increases. The company’s pricing actions from the second half of fiscal 2025 are flowing through to the bottom line.
AI-Driven Efficiency: Every Visa leader now has AI targets to drive operational efficiency. The next-generation VisaNet platform was built with over 50% of its code assisted by generative AI, improving development speed and maintainability.
Strategic Investment Balance: While Visa is investing heavily in agentic commerce, stablecoin capabilities, and Olympic/FIFA sponsorships, management maintains discipline around balancing short- and long-term returns. Operating expense growth is expected to match revenue growth at a low double-digit rate.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 23x
The market currently values Visa at 25.7x earnings. We chose 23x for our exit multiple to stay conservative.
Below Historical Average: Visa’s P/E has averaged 28.4x over the past year and 28.6x over 10 years. The current multiple reflects strong investor confidence, but some compression is reasonable as growth moderates from peak levels.
Quality Premium Warranted: Visa deserves a premium valuation due to its network effects, 67.7% operating margins, first-mover advantage in agentic commerce standards, and growing stablecoin settlement capabilities. The company facilitated over $140 billion in crypto and stablecoin flows since 2020.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Payment networks face competition and technology disruption. Here’s how Visa stock might perform under different scenarios through September 2028:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 8.2% and margins compress to around 51%, the stock still offers a 5.7% annual return.
- Mid Case: With 9.1% growth and 54% margins (our base assumptions converted to net income margins), we expect an annual return of 10.9%.
- High Case: If Visa captures agentic commerce opportunities faster and maintains stronger margins around 57% while growing at 10.1%, returns could hit 15.6% annually.
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The range reflects execution on new initiatives like the Trusted Agent Protocol, stablecoin settlement expansion, and value-added services penetration. In the low case, competitors gain ground in agentic commerce, or stablecoin regulation creates headwinds.
In the high case, Visa’s open standards become the industry default and cross-border volumes accelerate beyond expectations.
How Much Upside Does Visa Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
