Key Takeaways
- BIT Capital’s 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30 shows it sold all of its Sandisk, Ciena and Nokia shares, while adding to Amazon and NVIDIA.
- All three stocks it sold have fallen at least 39% since Sept. 30.
- Analysts’ average price targets sit 80% to 131% above the latest close for each of the three.
- At about 4x forward earnings, Sandisk is the exit worth second-guessing, while Ciena’s 27x makes that sale the easiest to defend.
A $2.8 billion fund just sold out of three of the AI build-out’s big winners: Sandisk (SNDK), Ciena (CIEN) and Nokia (NOK).
BIT Capital’s 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 13, shows it held none of the three at quarter’s end. That 13F holds $2.81 billion of US stocks across 93 positions. Over the same quarter, the fund added to Amazon (AMZN) and NVIDIA (NVDA), now its No. 2 and No. 3 holdings.
Sandisk was the biggest of the three
At June 30, BIT Capital held 85,743 Sandisk shares worth $195 million, 6.7% of its 13F stocks at the time. By Sept. 30, it held none. A 13F can’t tell us when in the quarter the fund sold or what it got. But Sandisk is down 61% from its Sept. 30 close, including a 24% drop in a single week on industry-wide memory worries.
Analysts’ average target has held close to its July high, and it’s up from $137 a year ago:
At $2,047, that target is more than double the latest close of $885.
Ciena got caught in the AI selloff
At June 30, the fund held 168,866 Ciena shares worth $83 million, 2.8% of its 13F stocks, and it held none by Sept. 30. Ciena is down 43% since then. That includes a 15% drop on Nov. 5 alongside Arista as the AI selloff deepened after the Democratic sweep.
Analysts’ average target more than tripled over the past year to $513, and it has come down only a little from its June high of $566:
When Ciena reports in December, the question is whether its margins can keep up.
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on Sandisk. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Sandisk, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Sandisk’s Analyst Ratings
Nokia found a buyer on the other side
At June 30, the fund held 4.62 million Nokia shares worth $61 million, 2.1% of its 13F stocks, and none by Sept. 30. Nokia is down 39% since then. In its Oct. 22 third-quarter report, it beat expectations and held its outlook but cut its cash flow view, and the stock sank 9%. Not every fund headed for the exit: ARGA Investment Management’s latest 13F shows it bought Nokia.
Analysts’ average target more than doubled over the year to $14.52, close to its July high of $15.16:
That’s 80% above the latest close of $8.07.
Should you follow it out?
On Ciena, I’d stay out with the fund. Even after the drop, it trades at about 27x forward earnings, the highest of the three, so AI spending has to keep climbing for it to grow into that price. Nokia sits in between at about 17x.
Sandisk is the opposite case. It trades at about 4x forward earnings, the lowest since it listed in February 2025 and well below its one-year average of about 11x. That price assumes a steep downturn, and analysts do expect one: the three with fiscal 2030 estimates average $155.11 a share, 49% below the fiscal 2029 consensus of $305.34. Sandisk’s multiyear contracts set floor prices, though. Management says those floors still yield a gross margin of about 80%, against 85.1% in the quarter that ended Oct. 2.
Since Sept. 30, the stocks BIT Capital added to have gone different ways. Amazon is up 7% after AWS grew 39% last quarter, its fastest in five years. NVIDIA is down 29%, and it reports on Nov. 17, its first quarter since Jensen Huang resigned as CEO on Nov. 12.
The one I’d buy back
If I could buy back only one of the three, it’d be Sandisk: at 4x forward earnings, much of the bad news is already in the price. The risk is flash prices. Kioxia’s NAND price gains cooled to the mid-20s percent in the September quarter from about 70%, and Sandisk’s estimates would fall quickly if that keeps up. Its fiscal second-quarter report in late January will show whether prices are still rising. BIT Capital’s next 13F, due in mid-February, will show whether the fund came back.
So what is Sandisk stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
