Key Takeaways
- Astera Labs stock is up 16.3% in the past week as AI hardware stocks, Credo among them, bounced back and CoreWeave raised its outlook.
- Management expects Scorpio X switches alone to exit 2026 above a $1 billion annualized run rate, which answers the plateau worry from its earnings call.
- Analysts expect earnings to more than double this year, yet the stock trades far below its usual forward P/E.
- Customer concentration is the main risk, but the stock looks like a buy ahead of its fourth-quarter report.
Astera Labs (ALAB) stock is up 16.3% in the past week, mostly without news of its own. AI hardware stocks bounced back from the post-midterm selloff, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gave them a fresh push when it raised its outlook after the close on Nov. 10.
Credo Technology (CRDO), riding the same AI spending, rose 9.1%.
CoreWeave’s raise is Astera’s kind of news
CoreWeave, up 14.5% this week, lifted its 2026 revenue guide to $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion after a $3.66 billion third quarter. It also raised the low end of its capital spending range, now $37 billion to $39 billion. That kind of spending fills racks with Astera’s switches. Like Astera, Credo leans on a handful of buyers. Its revenue rose 115% to $479 million in its latest quarter, driven by four domestic customers.
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on Astera Labs. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Astera Labs, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Astera Labs’ Analyst Ratings
Scorpio X answers the plateau question
Astera’s own third-quarter revenue rose 154% to $584.9 million, and the fourth-quarter guide of $730 million to $750 million beat the $656 million analysts expected. But when asked whether Scorpio X could plateau, CFO Desmond Lynch said the first platforms had “completed much of their initial deployment ramps,” and the stock slid.
At BMO’s conference on Thursday, management said Scorpio X alone should exit 2026 at an annualized run rate well above $1 billion. That’s more than $250 million a quarter, about a third of the fourth-quarter guide. Management also expects two or three customers to join the two hyperscalers Astera ships to now.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to more than double this year, to $4.38, and to reach $7.15 in 2027:
Since the fourth-quarter guide is already annualizing near the roughly $3 billion of revenue analysts expected for 2027, those estimates look low to me.
Still cheap after the bounce
Astera trades at about 34x forward earnings, half its 70x average over the past year:
The risk is concentration: its top three end customers made up about 86% of 2025 revenue. And on Thursday, Astera fell with Nvidia after The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia’s board was preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang.
Still, I’d buy here. Management just answered the Scorpio X worry that weighed on the stock after earnings. Investors haven’t priced that in yet. The fourth-quarter report early next year has to show those new customers in the revenue.
So what is Astera Labs stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
