Key Takeaways
- Oklo has lost 76% in a year, and analysts’ average price target has fallen from $103 to $56.
- Wedbush repeated its Outperform rating and $36 target on Nov. 9. That target is 51% above today’s price, but it’s closer to the Street’s Hold targets than to its average.
- Oklo held $3.1 billion of cash and securities at Sept. 30, after raising $2.3 billion by selling stock in the first nine months of 2026.
- Wedbush’s case leaves out the stock sales still ahead, so a rebound to $36 within a year looks unlikely until Oklo shows who else will pay for its plants.
Oklo (OKLO) has lost 76% in a year, and even its bulls have lowered their expectations. Wedbush analyst Seth Basham repeated his Outperform rating and $36 price target on Nov. 9, after Oklo’s third-quarter report. That’s 51% above today’s $24 share price but 35% below the Street’s average.
Stock sales did the damage
Oklo owns the reactors it builds, and this year it has paid for them by selling stock. It raised $2.3 billion through its at-the-market program in the first nine months of 2026, then opened a new $1 billion program on Sept. 11. Management still hasn’t given a cost for Aurora-Idaho, its first power plant. In October, Piper Sandler raised its estimate of what each Oklo plant costs to build to $7,000 per kilowatt from $4,000.
Wedbush is betting the reactors get built
Basham set the $36 when he took over coverage on Nov. 3, down from the firm’s previous $110. “OKLO shares, along with the broader advanced nuclear group, trade as if few or no reactors get built,” Basham wrote.
Oklo is worth about $4.7 billion today, and it held $3.1 billion of cash and securities at Sept. 30. And the Energy Department cleared Groves-1 for unrestricted operations on Nov. 11.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Does $36 add up?
Analysts’ average target has fallen from $103 to $56 over the past year, after peaking at $117 in January:
That average was still $65 on Nov. 3. Since then, Canaccord, Goldman Sachs and Craig-Hallum have all cut their targets. Wedbush’s $36 sits closer to the Hold targets at Citi ($33) and Goldman Sachs ($30) than to that average. And there’s very little revenue to put a value on. Analysts expect $4.32 million this year, $9.54 million in 2027 and $39.2 million in 2028:
So Wedbush’s $36 works out to 735x the sales analysts expect over the next twelve months. Analysts’ 2027 loss estimate has also widened, to $1.13 a share from $0.96 three months ago.
More stock sales come first
Basham is right that the price gives Oklo little credit for reactors. But that $3.1 billion is there to build them, and analysts’ models burn about $5.7 billion of free cash flow from 2026 through 2030. A stock valued not far above its cash can keep falling as the cash gets spent and replaced with new shares, and Wedbush’s case leaves that out. I’d sit out the rebound until Oklo shows who besides its shareholders will pay for the plants.
Two things would change that: a cost for Aurora-Idaho at or below Piper Sandler’s $7,000 per kilowatt, or a signed power contract for the 1.2-gigawatt Ohio campus Oklo is developing with Meta.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
