Key Takeaways
- A $25 billion fund made Nokia (NOK), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Alphabet (GOOGL) its three biggest new or added positions in Q3.
- All three stocks have fallen since Sept. 30, and analysts’ average targets sit 25% to 114% above the last close.
- Qualcomm’s case is the shakiest, since analysts have been cutting its earnings estimates as its handset business shrinks.
- Alphabet is the one the numbers back best, with even Wall Street’s lowest target above its last close.
Every quarter, the big funds have to show their holdings. And a $25 billion firm most investors have never heard of just leaned hard into three beaten-down tech stocks.
ARGA Investment Management made Nokia, Qualcomm and Alphabet its three biggest new or added positions in its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Oct. 30.
And all three stocks are cheaper now than they were on Sept. 30.
Nokia is growing faster than its cash
The fund raised its Nokia stake 365% in the quarter, to 21.82 million shares worth $221 million on Sept. 30. That’s 5.6% of its 13F stocks, its seventh-largest position.
The business is moving the right way. Nokia’s Q3 net sales rose 9% at constant currency to €5.15 billion, its comparable operating profit jumped 35% to €605 million, and AI & Cloud sales grew 123%.
But free cash flow came in at negative €99 million. Nokia now expects to turn just 35% to 55% of this year’s comparable operating profit into free cash flow, as it puts another €400 million into working capital.
The stock sank on the report, and it’s down 23% since Sept. 30.
Analysts are looking past it. TIKR’s consensus target more than doubled over the past year, from $6.47 to $14.52:
Even the lowest of Nokia’s 13 targets, $8.40, is above the last close of $7.46. The average implies 114% upside, with the stock at about 16x forward earnings.
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on Nokia. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nokia, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nokia’s Analyst Ratings
Qualcomm’s estimates are still falling
The fund more than doubled its Qualcomm stake, up 118% to 362,967 shares worth $67 million on Sept. 30, or 1.7% of its 13F holdings.
At about 17x forward earnings, Qualcomm trades right at its average since 2014 on TIKR, down from about 20x at the end of September.
That’s only cheap if earnings hold up, and they haven’t. Over the past year, analysts cut their fiscal 2027 EPS estimate 17.2%, to $10.17. That’s still below the $12.03 of adjusted EPS Qualcomm earned in fiscal 2025.
Phones are the problem. Handsets were 72.5% of Qualcomm’s chip revenue in fiscal 2025. Apple is moving to its own modems, and the memory shortage is cutting Android phone builds.
The stock sank after its Nov. 4 report, as rising chip costs outweighed its growth outside handsets. The Street’s average target peaked at $222.73 in mid-July and has slipped since:
The average, $197, still sits 25% above the last close.
But Bernstein cut its target to $155 on Nov. 2, just below the last close, and kept a Hold rating.
Wall Street keeps raising Alphabet’s target
Alphabet is the only new name of the three: the fund bought 139,915 shares, worth $48 million on Sept. 30, and 1.2% of its 13F stocks.
Here, the analysts and the stock have gone opposite ways. TIKR’s consensus target rose from $311.46 a year ago to $432.6 on Nov. 2.
The stock closed that day at $278.99, below the $283.72 it fetched a year earlier:
The stock is down 17% since Sept. 30 and sits 43% below its 52-week high.
Yet the lowest of its 58 targets, $300, is above the last close of $282.57, and the average, $400, implies 42% upside.
And at about 20x forward earnings, I don’t think that’s much to pay for a company whose TPUs now rank second only to Nvidia’s chips in compute.
Alphabet gets my vote
All three of the fund’s buys now trade below their Sept. 30 prices, and analysts see upside in each. But the numbers back them unevenly.
If I could only buy one right now, it’d be Alphabet. Its target has climbed all year while the stock went nowhere, and not one of 60 analysts has a target below the last close.
Nokia has more upside on paper, but its targets come from 14 analysts, and the business is spending cash to grow. Qualcomm only looks cheap if its estimates stop falling.
The risk with Alphabet is that analysts start cutting, and that 42% would shrink fast.
The next clues come in mid-February, when the fund’s 13F for the December quarter shows whether it kept buying after the drop.
So what is Nokia stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
