Key Takeaways
- Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Overweight rating and $200 price target on Coinbase on Nov. 12, 57% above the stock’s price after a 58% drop over the past year.
- Wall Street’s average target has fallen from $385 a year ago to $197, though it still sits 54% above the price.
- Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate to $2.41 a share from $4.79 at the end of June, and $200 works out to about 146x next-12-month earnings.
- Cantor looks early: $200 only works once 2027 estimates stop falling, and Coinbase’s fourth-quarter report early next year is the next test.
Coinbase Global (COIN) hhas lost 58% over the past year, and Cantor Fitzgerald still sees a big rebound. On Nov. 12, analyst Ramsey El-Assal kept his Overweight rating and $200 price target, 57% above the stock’s Nov. 13 close of $128.
Trading slowed, then Binance got hacked
Coinbase’s transaction revenue fell 44% from a year earlier in the third quarter, which it reported Oct. 29. On the call, CFO Alesia Haas said, “We saw overall crypto spot trading volume down 10% quarter-over-quarter,” and added that “the growth in prediction markets offset the decline in overall spot trading.”
Then hackers stole $6.3 billion from rival Binance. On Nov. 3, Goldman Sachs called Coinbase one of the best-positioned firms for customers leaving Binance. But it still saw the hack as a net negative for crypto balances and trading volumes. And after Democrats swept the midterms, crypto stocks fell again on Nov. 9 as Congress raised the prospect of tougher crypto rules.
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Cantor is betting on prediction markets
El-Assal trimmed his target to $200 from $212 after the third-quarter report. On Nov. 12, he kept it after Cantor hosted CEO Brian Armstrong, who said trust is becoming Coinbase’s central advantage. He’s backed prediction markets for a while. In April, he named Coinbase one of the public-market winners of the boom, writing that “prediction markets have exploded onto the scene.”
So far, he’s been right about that. Coinbase said in its third-quarter results that prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue. Its share of crypto trading volume also rose for a fourth straight quarter, to 10.7%. And on Nov. 9, it announced final approval for a national trust bank charter.
Does $200 add up?
Wall Street keeps cutting. The average analyst target has fallen from $385 a year ago to $197, though that still sits 54% above the price:
The 37 analysts who cover the stock don’t agree, either. Morgan Stanley downgraded it to Sell with a $120 target on Nov. 2. B. Riley cut its target to $150 from $203 the same morning as Cantor’s call.
Earnings estimates have fallen too. Analysts now expect a loss of $0.35 a share this year, smaller than the $1.82 loss they expected a month ago. But they’ve cut 2027 to $2.41, from $3.05 a month ago and $4.79 at the end of June:
That puts the stock at about 93x the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. At $200, it would trade at about 146x.
Cantor is early
The Binance hack could keep crypto balances and trading lower for a while, and Democrats’ sweep could bring tougher rules.
Cantor’s $200 is right next to the Street’s $197, but the Street has spent the whole year cutting. Paying about 146x next-12-month earnings only makes sense once 2027 estimates stop falling, and they haven’t yet. Until they do, I wouldn’t count on $200 within a year.
Coinbase’s fourth-quarter report, due early next year, is the one to watch. If prediction markets and the relaunched Coinbase Pro lift transaction revenue enough for analysts to raise their 2027 estimates, $200 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Coinbase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
