Key Stats for Arista Networks Stock
- 52-Week Range: $86 to $180
- Current Price: $154
- Street Mean Target: $188
- Street High Target: $220
- Analyst Consensus: 22 Buy, 7 Outperform, 1 Hold
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $333
Arista Networks Beat Q1 Revenue by $100 Million, Then the Stock Sold Off
Arista Networks (ANET), the Santa Clara-based networking infrastructure leader behind the high-speed Ethernet switches powering the world’s largest AI data centers, delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $2.71 billion, ahead of consensus expectations of around $2.61 billion.
The company earned $0.87 per share on a non-GAAP basis in the quarter, up from $0.66 per share a year earlier.
CEO Jayshree Ullal called it the strongest demand environment in the company’s history.
“Our demand is actually the best I’ve ever seen in my Arista tenure,” Ullal said on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Arista raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to approximately $11.5 billion, a growth rate of roughly 28%, and lifted its AI revenue target from approximately $3.25 billion to around $3.5 billion — more than doubling AI sales year over year.
The selloff that followed came down to one thing: investors were priced for a bigger raise.
Second-quarter guidance came in at approximately $2.8 billion in revenue, slightly above the consensus of around $2.77 billion — a beat by any objective measure, but short of the whisper number in a stock that had run nearly 30% year to date entering the print.
Supply chain constraints added fuel to the selling.
Management acknowledged industry-wide shortages across wafers, silicon, memory, and optics, and flagged that purchase commitments had climbed to approximately $8.9 billion from around $6.8 billion in Q4, a signal of multiyear demand confidence rather than near-term execution failure.
“We are talking about an industry-wide supply problem. We don’t believe this is specific to Arista,” said Arista IR and Finance SVP Roderick Hall at the JPMorgan Tech Conference.
The company’s deferred revenue balance grew to approximately $6.2 billion, up from around $5.4 billion the prior quarter, representing physical product already shipped, invoiced, and cash-collected, waiting on customer acceptance milestones to flow into recognized revenue.
When deferred revenue growth is included alongside reported revenue, Arista’s effective shipment-based growth in Q1 reached approximately 54%.
What Wall Street Expects from Arista Networks Stock
Arista Networks stock carries approximately 22% implied upside to the street mean target of around $188 from its current price of $154, and the distribution of analyst ratings is among the cleanest in large-cap technology.
Of 30 analysts covering ANET, 22 rate it Buy and 7 rate it Outperform, with only 1 Hold on record and no Sell ratings. That is not a divided house; it is a near-unanimous bet on long-cycle AI infrastructure demand continuing to compound through Arista’s product portfolio.
Revenue estimates reflect that conviction. Consensus has Q2 2026 revenue at approximately $2.83 billion, a roughly 28% year-over-year increase, followed by approximately $2.94 billion in Q3 and around $3.12 billion in Q4. That trajectory implies approximately $11.5 billion for the full year, aligned exactly with management’s raised guide, with growth of roughly 20% continuing into fiscal 2027.
EPS estimates build through the year. Analysts project Q2 normalized EPS of approximately $0.88, Q3 of approximately $0.91, and Q4 of approximately $0.97, with earnings power compounding sequentially as supply constraints ease. The street high target of $220 represents approximately 43% upside from the current price.
The risk the street is watching: gross margins. Arista reiterated its 62% to 64% gross margin guidance for 2026 but acknowledged that cost pressures from memory and silicon procurement will keep the company near the lower end of that band in the near term. The band itself has held for four consecutive quarters, which matters. The specific risk is whether cost normalization arrives fast enough to sustain the back-half earnings build.
The catalyst to watch: the rate at which deferred revenue converts to recognized revenue in Q3 and Q4, as AI data center deployments reach acceptance milestones. A material release of the approximately $6.2 billion deferred balance into the income statement would substantially close the gap between the 54% shipment-growth rate and the 35% reported revenue growth in Q1.
Is Arista Networks Stock Undervalued in 2026? The TIKR Model at $333
TIKR’s base case values Arista Networks at approximately $333 by December 2030, implying around 116% total return from the current price of $154, or roughly 18% annualized over approximately 4 and a half years.
The model’s mid-case rests on roughly 17% revenue CAGR through 2035 and a net income margin of approximately 40%, both consistent with management’s own guidance and what Q1 actuals already demonstrate.
If AI infrastructure investment moderates and Arista’s CAGR comes in at the low-case assumption of approximately 15%, the model still produces approximately $374, around 143% total return at roughly 11% annualized.
That is a scenario in which the stock remains meaningfully undervalued even in a slowdown.
The high case, at approximately 19% CAGR with a net income margin of roughly 43%, drives the stock to approximately $693 by 2034, near 350% total return at roughly 19% annualized. That outcome requires no heroic assumptions: it asks only whether Arista’s AI networking dominance holds as scale-across and scale-up architectures compound into what management describes as a $105 billion TAM headed toward $150 billion by 2030.
Arista Networks stock is undervalued at its current price. The market’s post-earnings reaction priced in a supply crisis. The company’s $8.9 billion in purchase commitments and a 20%-plus CAGR guidance raised twice in two quarters priced in something very different.
Is Arista Networks Stock a Buy Right Now?
Arista Networks stock carries 22 Buy ratings and 7 Outperform ratings from Wall Street analysts, with a street mean target of approximately $188, roughly 22% above the current price of $154.
TIKR’s base case puts the stock at approximately $333 by December 2030.
The primary risk to the case is gross margin pressure from near-term supply chain constraints, but management has held its 62% to 64% guidance for four consecutive quarters.
What Do Analysts Say About Arista Networks Stock?
Of 30 analysts covering ANET, 29 carry a Buy or Outperform rating with zero Sell ratings on record.
The street mean target of approximately $188 reflects consensus confidence in Arista’s AI networking position. Revenue estimates project approximately $11.5 billion for full-year 2026, consistent with management’s raised guidance, with roughly 20% growth expected to continue into 2027.
Should You Invest in Arista Networks, Inc.?
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