Key Stats for Celsius Stock
- 52-Week Range: $27 to $67
- Current Price: $28
- Street Mean Target: $61
- Street High Target: $85
- Analyst Consensus: 12 Buys, 7 Outperforms, 3 Holds
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $45
Celsius Delivered Record Q1 Revenue While the CELSIUS Brand Reset Created a Short-Term Gap the Market Is Pricing as Permanent
Celsius Holdings (CELH), the parent company of the CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy drink portfolio, reported record first-quarter revenue of $782.6 million in Q1 2026, up 138% year over year, beating analyst consensus of around $767 million.
The headline number is acquisition-driven, but the underlying execution is not.
Alani Nu delivered net sales of $368 million in Q1, representing around 60% pro forma year-over-year growth, and its velocity metrics improved through the quarter rather than softening under the weight of distribution expansion.
The CELSIUS brand posted net sales of $348 million, up approximately 6% year over year, and the modest top-line result reflects a deliberate SKU rationalization project undertaken in parallel with integrating Alani Nu into the PepsiCo distribution system.
CEO John Fieldly addressed the SKU reset directly at the Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference on June 2: “We’re in a really good space for Celsius. We are just going through a time of really getting the foundation right so we can continue to drive growth on a national level and drive additional scale.”
The SKU optimization is working as intended: dollars per total point of distribution for the CELSIUS brand improved approximately 17% from January through April, meaning the brand is generating more revenue per shelf placement even as total SKU count declines.
Rockstar contributed around $67 million in net sales for the quarter, with integration on track for completion in the first half of 2026.
The combined Celsius portfolio now holds approximately 21% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink category in tracked channels, and that share was still expanding as of the four weeks ending April 12.
The $50 million in synergies from the Alani Nu integration were fully captured by the end of Q1, ahead of schedule.
EBITDA margin expanded approximately 370 basis points year over year to around 25% in Q1, with adjusted EBITDA reaching around $195 million versus around $70 million in the prior year quarter.
Why Analysts Hold Their Buy Ratings on CELH Stock Despite the YTD Selloff
Celsius stock has fallen roughly 58% from its 52-week high of around $67, and the analyst community has not followed the price lower.
With 19 buys and outperforms against only 3 holds and zero sells out of 22 covering analysts, the Street’s conviction is unusually high for a stock in a prolonged drawdown.
The mean target of around $61 implies roughly 118% upside from the current price of around $28, and the high target of $85 suggests the most optimistic analysts see a three-times move from here.
Morgan Stanley upgraded CELH to Overweight in early June 2026 with a price target of $55, citing brand momentum data showing the total Celsius energy drink portfolio grew approximately 13% in the two weeks ended May 16, with sequential stability from the prior two-week period.
The forward earnings trajectory supports that conviction: consensus estimates call for Q2 2026 EBITDA of approximately $200 million, followed by a step-up to around $210 million in Q3 and around $180 million in Q4, as Rockstar’s integration rolls into the cost structure and the orbit model freight optimization begins delivering full-quarter benefits.
The underlying argument is not about Q1 revenue growth or short-term SKU counts. It is about whether a company with 21% U.S. energy drink share, two franchises growing at double-digit velocity, and a structural path to gross margins in the low 50s deserves to trade at the same price it was at before either Alani Nu or Rockstar existed as part of the portfolio.
At around $28, CELH stock is trading near a 52-week low, and the Street’s answer to that question is: it does not.
Is CELH Stock Undervalued in 2026? The TIKR Model Points to $45 by December 2030
TIKR’s base case values Celsius stock at approximately $45 by December 2030, implying around 61% total return from the current price of $28, or roughly 11% annualized over approximately 4.6 years.
If Celsius stock delivers revenue CAGR around 8%, net income margin around 15%, and EPS CAGR around 9% through the forecast period, the model prices the stock at approximately $54, implying around 91% total return and roughly 8% annualized IRR.
That scenario requires the CELSIUS brand to return to growth in the second half of 2026, Alani Nu to sustain mid-to-high velocity expansion as it penetrates convenience more fully, and gross margins to follow the committed path toward the low 50s.
If the brand recovery lags, revenue growth tracks toward around 7% CAGR, and net income margins stabilize at around 14%, TIKR’s low case puts the stock at approximately $40, implying around 44% total return and roughly 4% annualized IRR over the same period.
If the integration execution beats expectations, including Rockstar finding a sustainable brand identity in 2027, international expansion accelerating through the Dublin center of excellence, and price-pack architecture improvements beginning to compound in 2027 and 2028, the high case puts Celsius stock at approximately $68, implying around 143% total return and roughly 11% annualized IRR.
At around $28, CELH stock is priced below every scenario in the TIKR model. The question the model is asking is whether a temporary reset in the CELSIUS brand’s SKU configuration is a structural impairment or a timing gap. The data on velocity, category share, and EBITDA expansion points toward the latter.
Is Celsius stock a buy right now?
Celsius stock is trading near its 52-week low of around $27, roughly 58% below the Street mean target of around $61. Of 22 analysts covering CELH, 19 rate it a buy or outperform.
The investment case rests on whether the CELSIUS brand’s near-term SKU rationalization resolves into accelerating growth by late 2026, as management has guided, while Alani Nu continues to expand in convenience with improving velocity.
Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight in June 2026 with a $55 target, citing sequential stability in portfolio-wide sales growth.
What do analysts say about CELH stock?
The analyst consensus on Celsius stock is 12 Buys, 7 Outperforms, and 3 Holds, with no sell ratings among the 22 analysts covering the stock.
The mean price target is around $61, implying roughly 118% upside from the current price of around $28.
The Street is effectively arguing that a company with 21% U.S. energy drink category share, two high-velocity brands, and EBITDA of around $195 million in a single quarter is being mispriced by an equity market focused on a short-term distribution reset.
Should You Invest in Celsius Holdings, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Celsius Holdings, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Celsius Holdings, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze CELH stock on TIKR for Free →
