Key Stats for Moderna Stock
- Price Change for Moderna stock: 27.6%
- $MRNA Share Price as of Jan. 6: $35.66
- 52-Week High: $47.70
- $MRNA Stock Price Target: $36.90
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What Happened?
Moderna (MRNA) stock jumped over 10% on Tuesday after Bank of America Securities raised its price target from $21 to $24 per share.
The upgrade came on the same day Moderna announced regulatory filings for its seasonal flu vaccine in major markets and released a shareholder letter highlighting significant cost-cutting progress.
The company filed for marketing authorization in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia for mRNA-1010, its investigational seasonal influenza vaccine targeting adults 50 and older.
Phase 3 data showed the vaccine achieved 26.6% higher efficacy than standard-dose flu vaccines. CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized that mRNA’s flexibility could help vaccines “more closely match evolving strains” as they emerge.
In the shareholder letter, Bancel revealed Moderna beat its 2025 cash-cost reduction commitment by nearly $1 billion.
The company now projects 2026 cash costs of about $4.2 billion as it works toward cash breakeven in 2028. Moderna also highlighted that mNEXSPIKE, its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, captured approximately 24% of U.S. retail COVID vaccinations in 2025 despite launching mid-year.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Moderna Stock
The rally in Moderna stock reflects growing investor confidence that the company can successfully transition from pandemic-era COVID vaccine sales to a diversified portfolio of seasonal respiratory vaccines.
The flu vaccine filing represents a significant step in this strategy, potentially opening a $6 billion annual market, with enhanced vaccines alone accounting for $2.5 billion in sales.
Bank of America analyst Tim Anderson acknowledged Moderna has done “a solid job” cutting costs but maintained his Underperform rating, noting the stock will likely remain driven by COVID vaccine demand and sentiment in the near term.
He expects headwinds to continue into the 2026/2027 season as vaccination rates potentially decline further.
Jefferies also maintained a “Hold” rating with a $30 price target, pointing to Moderna’s 2025 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion.
This represents a significant decline from peak pandemic revenues, but the company is reaffirming plans for nine or more potential product launches across respiratory diseases, oncology, and rare diseases by 2027-2029.
However, Moderna stock remains under pressure from multiple factors. Vaccination rates have declined roughly 27-28% this season compared to last year.
The company also faces uncertainty around an FDA investigation into potential deaths linked to COVID-19 vaccines. However, Moderna emphasizes it hasn’t seen any new safety data from rigorous monitoring across 90+ countries and over 1 billion doses administered.
The $1 billion in cost reductions and progress toward breakeven by 2028 demonstrates strong operational discipline.
But investors should recognize that Moderna stock faces a challenging transition period as it diversifies away from dependence on the COVID vaccine while managing regulatory scrutiny and changing public health sentiment around vaccinations.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
