Key Stats for Walmart Stock
- Current Price: $107.98
- Target Price (Mid): ~$152
- Street Target: ~$127
- Potential Total Return: ~40%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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What Happened?
Walmart (WMT) CEO John Furner put a pricing pledge in writing on September 25: “We price the product, not the person.” In a public letter, he said the company will not use a shopper’s income, shopping history, or moment of need to charge more. The letter is a public pledge, and it leaves room for prices to rise when goods cost more to buy or ship.
It landed the day Federal Trade Commission comments closed on a proposal targeting undisclosed personalized pricing, though Furner tied it to customer questions about digital shelf labels and its Sparky AI assistant. Shares closed up 0.36% at $107.98 that day, 19.54% below their May closing peak of $134.20. The bigger test for the stock is the fight for marketplace sellers, detailed in Walmart’s investor relations materials.
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Joneja’s WFS Math Meets Amazon’s Six-Month Discount
In the quarter ended July 31, Walmart U.S. marketplace net sales grew 52%, and nearly half of that business ran through Walmart Fulfillment Services (WFS), according to the company’s second-quarter call. Manish Joneja, Walmart’s SVP and Global Head of Marketplace and Fulfillment Services, explained why at a Piper Sandler conference on September 16. Items stocked in WFS convert 50% better, and sellers see 15% lower costs, so “you’re actually getting 1.5x sales at 15% better margin,” he said.
Ads multiply that: when “an item is in WFS and they have ads on it, we see sometimes 5x GMV growth,” Joneja said, referring to gross merchandise value, the total value of goods sold. Walmart has started placing selected third-party inventory in store backrooms so it can ship alongside groceries, and Joneja called the overall marketplace push the “first inning.”
On September 24, Amazon (AMZN) made its own bid for multichannel sellers. It let merchants add Prime delivery to their own websites and offered Fulfillment by Amazon sellers discounts and credits worth 15% to 25% of fulfillment fees on multichannel orders for the first six months, rising with volume. It also began rolling out a free tool to manage eBay, Shopify, TikTok, and Walmart orders inside Seller Central.
Walmart pitches the same idea: Joneja said WFS can also fulfill orders from other marketplaces, sellers’ own sites or Shopify, though his 15% and Amazon’s discount are measured differently. Walmart has ground to win. Marketplace Pulse’s 2026 Seller Index found 71% of Amazon-primary sellers active on another marketplace still earn at least three-quarters of their marketplace revenue on Amazon, though it noted the new tools could help some sellers grow on Walmart.
The Multiple Has Done All the Falling Since April
Since the end of April, Walmart’s forward P/E ratio has dropped to about 36 times from about 45 times, while NTM normalized EPS estimates rose from around $2.92 to around $3.00. The slide is multiple compression, not falling estimates.
The compression continued after the second-quarter report. U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6%, held back partly by Medicare’s new negotiated drug prices, and shares fell 9.15% on August 20. The mean Street target has slipped to around $127 from around $138 at the end of July.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $107.98
- Target Price (Mid): ~$152
- Potential Total Return: ~40%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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TIKR’s mid case, the model’s central scenario, puts Walmart at around $152 by January 31, 2031, about 19% above the Street’s ~$127 mean. Consensus on TIKR has sales rising from $706.4 billion in fiscal 2026 to about $892 billion in fiscal 2031, around 5% a year, while normalized EPS climbs from $2.64 to about $4.14, around 9% a year, though only four analysts forecast fiscal 2031 sales.
Earnings outgrowing sales requires wider margins or fewer shares, and Walmart credits marketplace, fulfillment, and advertising with improving its economics. The primary risk is that Amazon’s discounts slow WFS adoption. Upside comes if marketplace growth holds near the second quarter’s 52% as backroom inventory scales.
The downside comes if operating income growth settles near the 2% to 4% constant-currency range guided for the third quarter, which management attributes to reinvesting tariff refunds into prices and customer experience.
Conclusion
The fiscal third-quarter report, covering the quarter ending October 31 and expected in November, gives the first read against adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62 to $0.64. The holiday quarter is the fuller test. Marketplace growth holding near 52% would support the seller-side case, while a slowdown would raise the question of whether Amazon’s offer is working.
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Should You Invest in Walmart?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Walmart, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Walmart alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
