Key Stats for Ford Stock
- Current Price: $12.71
- Target Price (Mid): ~$19
- Street Target: ~$16
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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What Happened?
Ford Motor Company (F) canceled every production crew at its Dearborn Truck Plant from Sept. 24, with the stoppage scheduled through Sept. 29, according to an internal memo viewed by Reuters. On Sept. 25, the day Reuters reported it, Ford closed up 0.87% at $12.71 while General Motors (GM) rebounded about 2.6%.
Ford’s smaller bounce fits a market pricing in the outage, though no source ties the gap to it directly. Ford’s investor relations materials carry 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10 billion to $11 billion, set in July. At about 7 times forward earnings, the question is how much a lost week of F-150 output can still take from the stock.
The Outage Hits the Plant Carrying Ford’s Truck Rebound
Kansas City Assembly lost shifts over the same issue, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters, while Kentucky Truck Plant raised output to offset losses elsewhere. The cause is disputed. Reuters’ source said the supplier problem was unrelated to the Novelis aluminum shortage that has constrained F-Series output since late 2025. Meanwhile, a UAW Local 249 official told the Detroit Free Press he suspects aluminum. Ford said it does not comment on supplier disruptions.
Ford added a third crew at Dearborn to target more than 45,000 extra F-150s in 2026, out of more than 50,000 additional F-Series trucks it planned. A spokeswoman still cited that goal in August. On the Q2 earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said: “You’ve got the Super Duty and you have the F-Series that are going to be coming back in full force for the second half of the year.”
House put U.S. inventory at 52 retail days on that July 28 call, below Ford’s 55-to-65-day target. Ford’s U.S. sales were down about 10% through August, with F-Series down 11%, per Reuters
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Estimates Rose While the Multiple Fell to 7x
TIKR data shows Ford’s forward P/E fell from about 9x on June 30 to about 7x on Sept. 25 as the stock dropped 8.6%. NTM normalized EPS estimates, a rolling window, moved from about $1.47 to about $1.77. Fixed-year estimates rose too: consensus revenue is up 1.01% for 2026 and 2.21% for 2027 since June 30. Ford still trades above GM at about 6x, so the discount is to Ford’s own recent history.
The Street’s mean target rose from around $15 to around $16. Even the lowest of 18 targets, around $12.80, sits above the Sept. 25 close, yet ratings remain Hold-heavy: 5 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 12 Holds, 1 Sell, and 1 No Opinion.
Trailing GAAP EPS stands at -$1.86 after special charges, including a $3.6 billion largely non-cash BlueOval SK charge in Q2. The 7x multiple rests on adjusted forward earnings.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $12.71
- Target Price (Mid): ~$19
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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TIKR’s mid case, a scenario rather than a forecast, points to around $19 by Dec. 31, 2030. That’s a total return of around 50%, or about 10% a year, from $12.71. Consensus estimates in TIKR show what that requires, though 2030 revenue rests on only two analysts:
- Revenue: About $177 billion in 2026, rising to about $209 billion in 2030. The drivers are recovering F-Series volume, and the postponed Super Duty fleet orders, Ford Pro is expected to make up in the second half.
- Margin: EBIT margin rises from about 6% to about 7% over the same years, helped by the $1 billion in material and warranty cost cuts Ford expects in 2026.
- Multiple: $19 equals about 6 times the $3.18 of the 2030 normalized EPS consensus expects. That’s below the current 7x, so the target needs no re-rating.
The primary risk is repeated production losses on Ford’s most important vehicle. Upside comes if the multiple holds near 7x while earnings grow. The downside comes from a guidance cut that lowers the earnings base.
October’s Test Is the $10 Billion Floor
Ford’s third-quarter report, which earnings calendars expect in late October, is the checkpoint. TIKR consensus sits around $10.3 billion of 2026 EBIT, in the lower half of the guidance range. A reaffirmed range would mark the Dearborn outage as a blip. A cut below $10 billion would suggest even 7x was not pessimistic enough.
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Should You Invest in Ford?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Ford, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
