Key Takeaways for Walmart Stock as of September 2026
- Walmart raised its full-year sales, operating income and EPS guidance on the Q2 fiscal 2027 call, and management pointed to double-digit free cash flow growth for the year even with more than $2 billion in incremental fuel costs.
- The quarterly dividend sits at $0.25, up from $0.24.
- Walmart stock’s payout ratio fell to 30.99% last quarter, well below its 44.30% peak, while the NTM dividend yield held at 0.97%, near its 0.66% low.
- TIKR’s mid case model puts Walmart stock at a $151 target by 1/31/31, a 41% total return worth 8% annualized.
Walmart just raised its dividend to $0.25 a share, but the yield sits near the bottom of its range. See what’s behind that gap on TIKR for free →
Walmart Stock’s Raised Guidance Points to a Dividend With Room to Grow
Walmart (WMT) walked into its Q2 fiscal 2027 call on August 20, 2026 with enterprise net sales growth of 5% in constant currency, the top end of its prior guidance range.
CFO John David Rainey told analysts in Q2 2027 earnings call that the results give the company “confidence to raise our sales and operating income growth guidance for the year.”That confidence showed up directly in the numbers.
Walmart raised full-year sales guidance to a range of 4% to 5% from 3.5% to 4.5% and lifted full-year operating income guidance to 7% to 8.5% from 6% to 8%.EPS guidance climbed too, moving to $2.80 to $2.87 for the year from $2.75 to $2.85.
Rainey said Walmart expects to generate double-digit growth in free cash flow this year, even as CapEx rises to approximately 4% of annual net sales.
That combination matters for Walmart stock’s dividend question: a company growing free cash flow faster than its capital spending has more room to fund shareholder returns without straining the balance sheet.
The guidance raise came despite real cost pressure.
Walmart absorbed more than $2 billion of incremental fuel-related costs versus its original assumptions, plus a roughly 20 basis point headwind from the Vibe acquisition.
Even so, adjusted operating income grew 17.4% in constant currency in the quarter, aided by tariff refunds the company received and is reinvesting in price.Rainey urged investors to view Q2 and Q3 together, since a large share of the tariff-refund reinvestment landed late in the second quarter and carries into the third.
Setting the refund benefit aside, he said underlying operating income growth still came in at the top end of the company’s 7% to 10% guidance range.
Walmart raised full-year EPS guidance to $2.80-$2.87 and expects double-digit free cash flow growth this year. See the full breakdown on TIKR for free →
Walmart Stock’s Payout Ratio Sits Near Multi-Quarter Lows Even as Yield Compresses
The quarterly dividend has moved from $0.21 to $0.24 to its current $0.25 across the trajectory provided, holding at $0.24 for four straight quarters before stepping up.
That climb lines up with what management described on the call: a company generating more cash than expected and raising guidance across the board.
The payout ratio backs that read. It came in at 30.99% in the most recent period, down from a 44.30% high earlier in the trajectory and well inside the 26.69% to 44.30% range the data shows.
Walmart stock’s NTM dividend yield tells a different part of the story. At 0.97%, it sits closer to the 0.66% low in its range than the 1.51% high, and below its 1.01% mean.
Bulls will point to the 30.99% payout ratio as proof there’s ample room left to keep raising the dividend. Bears will note that a 0.97% yield offers little income for a stock already trading near the top of its historical range.
TIKR’s $151 Target Points to a 41% Return for Walmart Stock by 2031
TIKR’s mid case model puts Walmart stock’s target price at $151, realized by 1/31/31, for a potential total return of 41% and an annualized return of 8% a year.
That return profile puts Walmart stock in line with a steady compounder rather than a high-multiple growth story, consistent with a company generating double-digit free cash flow growth while its dividend keeps climbing.
The model’s case rests on the business Walmart described on the call: guidance raised across sales, operating income and EPS, membership fee revenue at an all-time high, and global e-commerce growth of 23%.
Those are the drivers behind the move from $107 today to $151 by 2031, not the dividend alone.
TIKR’s mid case puts Walmart stock at $151 by 2031, a 41% total return. Explore the model yourself on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Walmart Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Walmart Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Walmart Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze WMT stock on TIKR for Free →
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
