Key Takeaways for Walmart Stock as of September 2026
- Three-Month Slide: Walmart stock has fallen 11% since early June, closing at $106 on September 9 after the drop steepened sharply once Q2 earnings landed on August 20.
- Margin Squeeze: Adjusted operating income grew 17.4% in Q2, but ~750bps came from a one-time tariff-refund benefit, and management guided Q3 operating income growth to just 2% to 4% as ~$2.9B in refunds get plowed into price cuts.
- Split Verdict: Walmart stock carries 27 buys, 10 outperforms, 5 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell.
- Model Upside: TIKR values Walmart stock at $151, a 42% upside from today’s price.
Why Walmart Stock’s 11% Slide Traces Back to a Rare Sales Miss
Walmart stock (WMT) has fallen 11% since early June, closing at $106 on September 9 after a slide that steepened sharply once the retailer reported second-quarter results on August 20.
The stock had already drifted down to $111 by July 31, the last day of that fiscal quarter, before the earnings release three weeks later knocked the price down another 5%. Walmart posted adjusted operating income growth of 17.4% in the quarter, comfortably beating estimates, but roughly 750 basis points of that came from a one-time benefit tied to receiving about $2.9 billion in tariff refunds. Management immediately began plowing that money into deeper markdowns, pushing the rollback count to more than 11,000 items from 7,200 three months earlier. Comparable sales at Walmart U.S. grew just 2.6%, a print weighed down by a 125-basis-point drag from new maximum fair pricing rules on pharmacy drugs.
CFO John David Rainey used the Q2 2027 earnings call to reset expectations for what comes next: “Inclusive of planned investment of tariff refunds, Q3 operating income growth on a constant currency basis is expected to grow 2% to 4%… I encourage you to consider Q2 and Q3 performance together to assess the underlying growth of the business.” Guiding a quarter of adjusted profit growth down to single digits, right after a 17% print, is exactly the kind of deceleration Walmart stock had not priced in.
Jefferies moved four days later, cutting its price target on Walmart stock to $120 from $150 on August 24. Executive selling followed the same script. Walmart EVP Daniel Danker disposed of $10.96 million in shares on August 25 and 26, even as the company closed out a separate legal overhang by settling the Justice Department’s opioid-dispensing lawsuit for an immaterial $50 million on August 28. A newly expanded DOJ probe into beef pricing, which added Walmart to its list of targeted retailers on September 2, kept fresh pressure on the stock into the month.
None of it changes Walmart’s underlying demand: transactions and units both grew during the quarter. But it convinced the Street that fiscal 2027 profit growth will look far less exceptional than Q2’s headline number suggested.
Wall Street Cut Walmart Stock’s Target After Holding It Steady Through the Slide
Walmart stock carries 27 buy ratings, 10 outperforms, 5 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell as of September 9. Separately, 40 analysts publish a price target on the stock, and their mean sits at $127, 20% above the current price of $106.
That gap used to be wider. Analysts held the mean target at $137 in April and $138 in July even as the stock slid from $132 to $111 over that stretch, letting the target-to-close ratio balloon to 124%, the widest reading of the past six quarters shown.
The mean has since come down to $127, a cut of $11 that shows up only in the most recent column, arriving after the August 20 earnings report rather than ahead of it. Coverage held nearly flat at 40 analysts, down from 41, so the move reflects reappraisal rather than analysts walking away from the name.
TIKR Values Walmart Stock at $151, a Return to July’s Highs by 2031
TIKR’s mid-case model values Walmart stock at $151 by January 2031, implying 42% total return from the current price of $106, or 8% annualized over 4.4 years.
An 8% annualized return through 2031 sits close to what a broad equity benchmark delivers over a full cycle, positioning Walmart stock as a compounder bet rather than a re-rating trade.
That target implies Walmart stock reclaiming the roughly $130 level the Street mean held through July, not setting a fresh record, and it prices in the tariff-refund price war fading once the current wave of rollbacks laps itself. With 27 buy ratings still outnumbering the lone underperform, the model’s case tracks the same recovery the Street has already begun pricing back in.
That repricing already shows up in the multiple: Walmart stock’s forward P/E has fallen to 35.3 times NTM earnings from a peak of 46.8 times in the spring, landing just above its three-year average of 33.5 times, so the 42% return leans on earnings catching up rather than the multiple re-rating a second time.
Should You Invest in Walmart Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Walmart Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Walmart Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
