Key Takeaways for Occidental Petroleum Stock as of September 2026
- YTD Run: Occidental stock has climbed 45% since early January to $61, powered by an August cash flow plan and crude oil breaking back above $100.
- Split Widens: OXY carries 8 buy ratings, 2 outperforms, 16 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell, and separately, its 25-analyst mean target of $67 implies 9% upside from $61.
- Model Ceiling: TIKR values OXY at $65 by 2030, just 7% total return.
- Debt Milestone: Occidental cut principal debt to $11.8B in Q2, the lowest since 2019, funding the 8% dividend hike to $0.28 that helped ignite the rally.
Why Occidental Stock’s 45% Rally Rests on More Than $100 Oil
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock has climbed 45% since early January, closing at $61 on September 9 after a round trip that took it from a 2025 close near $41 to a March spike above $65, down to a June low near $49, and back up again.
Two forces built that last leg up. The first arrived on August 6, when Occidental reported second-quarter production above guidance and $3 billion in free cash flow, its best quarterly haul since the third quarter of 2022. On that call, management laid out a plan to add more than $4 billion of annual sustainable cash flow by 2030 relative to 2025, built from lower sustaining capital, interest savings tied to debt paydown that has already cut principal debt to $11.8 billion (the lowest since 2019), and the roll-off of Low Carbon Ventures spending once the Stratos carbon capture plant finishes commissioning. The board raised the quarterly dividend 8% to $0.28 on the same call.
CEO Richard Jackson addressed directly on Q2 earnings call how much of that $4 billion rides on crude prices: “Additionally, we can deliver this cash flow without increasing production and can expect approximately 85% to be achieved at even much lower prices.” That claim decouples most of the framework from oil, at least on paper.
Oil is the second force, and it has not stayed decoupled from the stock. Brent crossed $100 a barrel again on September 9 for the first time since July as fighting in the Middle East intensified, and Occidental stock rose alongside Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips even as the S&P 500 slid 0.4% that session. The same pattern held through late August, with the stock gaining on Iran-linked spikes and slipping on August 24 when Iran-Oman talks briefly revived hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. A September 1 federal court ruling that let a shale price-fixing suit against Occidental and Diamondback proceed barely registered against that backdrop.
Untangling those two drivers, a balance sheet story management controls and an oil tape it does not, is what the rest of this update is for.
Occidental Stock’s Buy Ratings Have Doubled Since Last Summer
Occidental Petroleum stock carries 8 buy ratings, 2 outperforms, 16 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell, the most bullish tilt the table has shown in at least five quarters. Separately, 25 analysts publish a price target, and their mean sits at $67, 9% above the stock’s $61 close.
That mean target has climbed from $50 in mid-2025 to $67 now, a 34% increase that moved in fits and starts rather than a straight line. When the stock spiked to $65 in March, the $61 mean target sat 7% below the price, meaning the Street thought the rally had gotten ahead of itself. By the June low of $49, the same measure implied 35% upside. Buy ratings have doubled from 4 to 8 across that stretch, and the 9% gap that survives today is tighter than June’s but still points the same direction.
TIKR Values Occidental Stock at $65, a Modest 2% a Year
TIKR’s mid-case model values Occidental Petroleum stock at $65 by December 2030, implying 7% total return from the current price of $61, or 2% annualized over 4.3 years.
That return is thin for an oil producer that just raised its dividend 8%, and it suggests TIKR’s model expects the payout, not the multiple, to carry most of the gain from here.
Occidental’s own cash flow framework can support the balance sheet and the dividend at almost any oil price, and the stock hasn’t gotten expensive to buy it: OXY trades at 13 times forward earnings, in line with Exxon’s 13 and just under ConocoPhillips’ 13, down from a 55 multiple in March when its earnings estimates still lagged the price. TIKR’s cautious 2% annualized call isn’t a bet that OXY is overpriced today. It’s a bet that the framework’s durability, not a cheap entry point, is what’s left to prove.
Should You Invest in Occidental Petroleum Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Occidental Petroleum Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
