Key Takeaways
- USA Rare Earth rose 13% today in a broad critical minerals rally that also lifted Critical Metals 12%, TMC 11%, and lithium producers SQM and Albemarle [6%] each.
- USA Rare Earth had no news of its own, so the move reflects how investors feel about the sector more than anything the company did.
- Analysts expect USA Rare Earth’s revenue to jump from $70 million in 2026 to $710 million in 2027 as its Oklahoma magnet plant ramps up, and its free cash flow was negative $86 million in 2025.
- The next real test is whether the Stillwater ramp keeps those estimates intact, starting with the company’s next quarterly report.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares jumped 13% today, and they had plenty of company.
Critical minerals stocks rallied across the board. Critical Metals (CRML) rose 12%, TMC the metals company (TMC) gained 11%, United States Antimony climbed 13%, and MP Materials added 7%. Lithium joined in too, with Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM) and Albemarle (ALB) each up 6%.
Even the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF rose 4%, against a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500.
No news required
USA Rare Earth put out no news of its own, and no single headline explains the group’s move.
Critical Metals had the closest thing to a catalyst: its acquisition of European Lithium became effective this morning. But that date was no surprise. An Australian court approved the deal on Monday, and Critical Metals laid out the timetable in a filing after Monday’s close.
And SQM’s and Albemarle’s gains show the buying reached well past rare earths, into lithium.
So USA Rare Earth traded as a stand-in for how investors feel about U.S. critical minerals.
See analyst ratings on USA Rare Earth (it’s free):
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on USA Rare Earth, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See USA Rare Earth’s Analyst Ratings
The business still has to show up
That’s partly because there aren’t many results to trade on yet. USA Rare Earth had almost no revenue in 2025, so its value rests on what analysts expect once its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet plant ramps up.
That’s $70 million this year, then a tenfold jump to $710 million in 2027 and $1.58 billion in 2028. At Monday’s close, the stock traded at 9.7x forward sales, and closer to 11x after today’s move.
Getting there isn’t cheap. Free cash flow went from negative $16 million in 2024 to negative $86 million in 2025 as the build-out picked up.
A Commerce Department CHIPS Act funding commitment backs the plant and the Round Top deposit in Texas (part of a $1.6 billion debt-and-equity investment the Trump administration announced, for a 10% stake).
And what lifts USA Rare Earth, TMC and Critical Metals together can sink them together. Even after today, USA Rare Earth is still well below where it started 2026.
My take: today’s jump is a vote on the sector, and it doesn’t change USA Rare Earth’s case. The stock will be judged on whether Stillwater delivers the revenue jump analysts expect in 2027, and its next quarterly report, due in the coming weeks, is the first place to check.
So what is USA Rare Earth stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
