Key Stats for UPS Stock
- This Week Performance: 3%
- 52-Week Range: $82 to $124
- Current Price: $116
What Happened to UPS Stock?
United Parcel Service (UPS) stock dropped 3% this week to $115.5, sitting about 6.6% below its 52-week high of $123.7, as a federal judge prepared to rule on a Teamsters injunction that could block the company’s $150,000 driver buyout program from moving forward.
The Teamsters Union filed suit on February 9, arguing the Driver Choice Program violates the 2023 National Master Agreement, with a union lawyer telling a Boston federal court on February 19 that over 10,000 drivers are expected to accept the buyouts if the program proceeds.
The legal fight directly threatens UPS’s plan to reduce operational positions by up to 30,000 in 2026 as part of its $3 billion Amazon glide-down cost-out target, a program the company needs to execute cleanly to reach its second-half operating profit recovery.
Markets are now pricing in execution risk on top of an already demanding transition year, where UPS guided for mid-single-digit first quarter domestic margins, International operating profit down 30% in Q1, and a first-half revenue decline before any recovery materializes in the back half.
Carol Tomé, Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “June of 2026 will be the inflection point,” anchoring the recovery thesis to the completion of the Amazon glide-down and the USPS Ground Saver transition, which together are expected to unlock high single-digit H2 operating profit growth.
The bigger picture is that UPS is executing one of the most complex logistics transformations in its history simultaneously: retiring its MD-11 fleet, automating 24 more facilities, transitioning Ground Saver to the USPS, and shrinking its Amazon exposure by 50%, all while defending a labor contract in federal court that could slow the entire process down.
Where is the UPS Stock Headed?
The Teamsters injunction ruling, which could block UPS from executing its 30,000-position reduction plan, now sits directly in the path of the H2 2026 recovery that the entire bull case depends on, making the federal court decision in Boston the most important near-term catalyst for the stock.
The fundamental case rests on what happens after the transition: if UPS delivers on its June 2026 inflection point, the company exits the year running a more automated network with 68% of volume through facilities that cost 28% less per piece than conventional ones, setting up EPS growth from the 2026 trough of $7.07.
Wall Street’s mean price target stands at $113.18 against a current price of $115.54, meaning the average analyst target actually sits slightly below where the stock trades today, reflecting how dramatically sentiment has deteriorated from the $149.01 mean target at the end of 2024.
The target range stretches from a bear case low of $75.00 to a bull case high of $130.00, a spread that captures whether the Amazon glide-down and network restructuring deliver the promised margin recovery or whether labor disruptions, trade headwinds, and continued EPS erosion push the stock toward multi-year lows.
If UPS successfully executes the Amazon exit, USPS Ground Saver transition, and driver rightsizing without Teamsters interference, a mid-case valuation model prices UPS at $179.52 by December 2030, implying a 55.4% total return and a 9.5% annualized IRR from current levels.
The risk is layered and compounding: the Teamsters lawsuit could delay the driver reduction, the $400 to $500 million Ground Saver EBIT benefit does not fully materialize until 2027, International margins remain pressured through at least September 2026, and EPS has declined for four consecutive years with consensus projecting another 1.3% drop in 2026.
At $115.54 with the mean analyst target below the current price and a court ruling imminent, UPS is a wait-and-see stock where the long-term model shows genuine upside but near-term execution risk makes patience the only rational stance before the June inflection point arrives.
Value Any Stock in Under 60 Seconds (It’s Free)
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
