Key Stats for Newmont Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 86%
- 52-Week Range: $41 to $135
- Valuation Model Target Price: $146
- Implied Upside: 16.1%
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What Happened?
Newmont Corporation stock surged about 86% over the last six months, recently trading near $125 per share as record gold prices and sharply higher free cash flow drove renewed investor confidence. The rally reflected a major earnings inflection and balance sheet improvement following the Newcrest integration.
However, shares have recently pulled back from their highs as investors reacted to lower 2026 production guidance and significant capital spending plans.
The company reported adjusted fourth quarter EPS of $2.52 versus $2.00 estimates as higher realized gold prices of $4,216 per ounce offset a 24% production decline to 1.45 million ounces.
While full year 2025 free cash flow reached $7.3 billion and debt was reduced by $3.4 billion, leaving Newmont in a net cash position of roughly $442 million, management guided 2026 gold production to 5.3 million ounces compared with 5.89 million ounces last year and outlined $1.4 billion of development capital, which tempered near-term enthusiasm.
CEO Natascha Viljoen emphasized operational focus, stating, “The focus on operational improvement is high on our agenda and we have teams on the ground continuously supporting at Nevada Gold Mines.”
The company also highlighted progress on Cadia Panel Caves, Tanami Expansion 2, and Red Chris, positioning these projects as key drivers of long-term production quality.
Analyst updates were mixed following the rally. BNP Paribas Exane raised its price target to $123 from $97 while maintaining a neutral rating, reflecting stronger earnings assumptions after the quarter.
Institutional positioning showed selective trimming, with Vanguard reducing its stake by 1.1% but still owning 12.23% of the company valued at about $11.25 billion, while overall institutional ownership remains high at 68.85%.
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Is Newmont Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 9.3%
- Operating Margins: 55%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 15x
These assumptions reflect sustained gold pricing strength and incremental contributions from key development projects entering production phases.
Forward 2-year revenue CAGR is estimated at 10.6%, while forward 2-year EPS CAGR is projected at 25.6%, highlighting meaningful operating leverage as realized prices and portfolio optimization drive earnings expansion.
Newmont’s profitability profile supports this outlook. The company reports LTM gross margins of 59.3% and LTM EBIT margins of 43.5%, meaning sustained gold prices near recent levels can translate into significant incremental free cash flow.
Its Tier 1 asset base, including Nevada Gold Mines, Cadia, Tanami, and Ahafo, provides scale and cost advantages that reinforce long-term margin durability.
Execution in 2026 will center on delivering 5.3 million ounces of attributable production, maintaining gold CAS near $1,055 per ounce, and advancing Tanami Expansion 2 and Cadia Panel Caves on schedule.
Sustaining capital of $1.95 billion is aimed at extending mine life and strengthening long-term asset quality, while the net cash balance supports continued dividends and buybacks.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $146, implying about 16.1% total upside over roughly 2.9 years, or 5.3% annualized.
Despite the strong 86% rally over the past six months, Newmont appears modestly undervalued if gold prices remain supported and operational execution stays on track in 2026.
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