Up 18% In Last 12 Months, Can BJ’s Restaurants Stock Keep Climbing In 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• Traffic Momentum: 3.5% traffic growth in recent weeks, driven by the Pizookie Meal Deal platform.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, BJRI stock could reach $50 by December 2027.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 15% from the current price of $43.84.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 7.6% growth over the next 1.9 years.

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BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) just posted its fifth straight quarter of sales and traffic growth while expanding restaurant-level margins by 80 basis points.

The company delivered 0.5% same-store sales in Q3, but momentum accelerated significantly as the quarter progressed, with traffic up 3.5% year over year in recent weeks.

CEO Lyle Tick is executing a turnaround centered on operational excellence and value.

• The Pizookie Meal Deal continues gaining traction as an everyday value platform, driving increased guest frequency across all income and age groups.
• The company maintained full-year guidance of approximately 2% same-store sales growth despite industry headwinds.
• Restaurant-level operating margins hit 12.5% in Q3, up 80 basis points from last year.
• Guest satisfaction scores and team member retention have reached multi-year highs.
• The company plans to launch a refreshed pizza platform in November and has signed leases for two new restaurants, with openings in late 2026.

Despite strong operational momentum, BJ’s stock trades at $43.84, leaving room for upside for investors who recognize the company’s improving fundamentals.

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What the Model Says for BJ’s Restaurants Stock

We analyzed BJ’s as it transformed into a more efficient casual-dining operator, delivering sustainable traffic growth and margin expansion.

• The company has built what management calls “stronger foundations” across the business.
• Simplification efforts eliminated more than 500,000 unnecessary point-of-sale clicks for team members and reduced food and beverage incidents by double digits.
• This operational improvement is directly translating into better guest experiences and higher profitability.
• The Pizookie Meal Deal platform is reshaping how customers engage with the brand.
• The value proposition is to recruit new guests and drive frequency gains among existing customers, with management noting improvements in frequency metrics across all demographic groups.
• Unlike promotional periods that create volatility, this platform provides consistent everyday value.

Using a forecast of 3.1% annual revenue growth and 4.0% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $50 within 1.9 years. This assumes an 18.3x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents the equivalent of BJ’s historical P/E averages of 18.3x (one year) but remains in line with longer-term valuations of 17.8x (ten years). The multiple reflects execution risks around new unit growth and sustaining margin improvements.

The real value lies in maintaining traffic momentum while expanding margins through continued operational improvements and the upcoming pizza refresh.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for BJRI stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 3.1%

BJ’s growth centers on traffic gains and unit expansion.

The company achieved positive traffic in Q3 despite a slow start, with momentum accelerating to 3.5% growth in recent weeks.

This performance significantly outpaces casual dining benchmarks. Management expects this momentum to continue through Q4, supported by the pizza refresh launching in November and two seasonal Pizookie offerings.

The Pizookie Meal Deal has now surpassed its first anniversary and continues to grow. Average check remains flat to slightly negative due to the lower-priced value platform and strong late-night business, but increased frequency more than compensates.

Importantly, the company is seeing frequency improvements translate into higher average total spend per customer.

Beyond same-store sales, BJ’s has signed leases for two new restaurants, with openings in late 2026. Management plans to ramp up new-unit development in 2027 and reach full run-rate growth by 2028, focusing on markets where the brand already has a footprint.

2. Operating margins: 4.0%

BJ’s is sustaining margin expansion through operational excellence.

• The company delivered 12.5% restaurant-level operating margins in Q3, up 80 basis points year over year. This performance reflects disciplined cost management despite choppy early-quarter sales.
• Cost of sales improved by 90 basis points to 25.7%, driven by menu optimization and the company’s four key margin drivers: table-stakes execution, simplification, outlier-restaurant improvement, and the Pizookie Meal Deal platform.
• Labor remained flat at 37.1% of sales as the company leveraged both hourly and management labor by 50 basis points.
• Higher workers’ compensation costs offset some gains, but improved forecasting and scheduling are driving efficiency.
• Management is rolling out AI-driven activity-based labor scheduling to 30% of restaurants by early 2026.

The company continues investing in remodels, completing 20 in 2025 for a three-year total of 72 restaurants. These remodels consistently deliver value-accretive returns while refreshing the atmosphere.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.3x

The market values BJ’s at 19.4x trailing earnings. We assume the P/E will compress slightly to 18.3x over our forecast period.

This conservative assumption accounts for execution risk around new unit development and sustaining margin expansion.

The company must successfully integrate new training programs, launch the pizza refresh, and demonstrate that recent operational improvements are durable.

As BJ’s proves it can maintain traffic momentum and expand margins, the stock should command a valuation in line with its ten-year historical average.

The company’s entrepreneurial culture and focus on hospitality provide competitive advantages in capturing return visits.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Casual dining companies face volatility in consumer spending and competition for discretionary dollars. Here’s how BJ’s stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:

• Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 2.8% and net income margins compress to 3.5%, investors still see a 12.0% total return (2.9% annually).
• Mid Case: With 3.1% growth and 3.7% margins, we expect a total return of 37.2% (8.4% annually).
• High Case: If traffic momentum accelerates and BJ’s maintains 3.8% margins while growing at 3.4%, returns could hit 65.2% total (13.7% annually).

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The range reflects execution of operational improvements, success with the pizza refresh, and the pace of new-unit development.

In the low case, consumer spending weakens, or the pizza refresh fails to drive incremental traffic.

In the high case, the Pizookie Meal Deal and product improvements drive sustained traffic gains while margins expand faster than expected through operational leverage.

How Much Upside Does BJ’s Restaurants Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!