Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- Price change for Eli Lilly stock: 10%
- $LLY Share Price as of Feb. 4: $1,107
- 52-Week High: $1,134
- $LLY Stock Price Target: $1,155
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What Happened?
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock jumped more than 10% after the pharmaceutical giant crushed fourth-quarter expectations and delivered a bullish 2026 outlook powered by soaring demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs.
- Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter revenue of $19.29 billion, beating analyst estimates of $17.94 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share came in at $7.54, topping the $6.91 expected. More importantly, Lilly guided 2026 revenue to $80-$83 billion, versus the $77.62 billion analysts had penciled in.
- The healthcare giant also expects adjusted earnings of $33.50 to $35 per share for the year, above the $33.23 consensus.
Zepbound and Mounjaro drove the fourth-quarter beat.
Mounjaro generated $7.41 billion in revenue, up 110% year-over-year, while Zepbound posted $4.2 billion in U.S. sales, up 122%.
Both figures topped StreetAccount estimates. CEO Dave Ricks said upcoming Medicare coverage for obesity treatments will expand the U.S. market significantly this year, calling it a “big multiplier on the eligible pool” of patients.
Eli Lilly stock also benefited from the company’s competitive position relative to rival Novo Nordisk. While Lilly’s guidance calls for 25% revenue growth at the midpoint, Novo warned Tuesday that sales and profit could decline by up to 13% this year due to pricing pressures and patent expirations in key markets.
Lilly increased its share of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market to 60.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 57.9% in the prior quarter, while Novo’s share fell to 39.1%.
The upbeat forecast comes despite pricing headwinds.
Lilly expects a low-to-mid-teens percentage decline in global pricing this year, driven by
- Its deal with President Trump to reduce the costs of obesity and diabetes drugs for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries.
- New direct-to-consumer rates for Zepbound.
- Lower Medicaid pricing for older products.
However, the company expects volume growth in the back half of 2026 to more than offset the pricing hit.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Eli Lilly Stock
The rally in Eli Lilly stock signals investors believe the company’s volume growth story is strong enough to overcome near-term pricing pressure.
The contrast with Novo Nordisk’s weak guidance reinforced Lilly’s competitive advantage in the booming GLP-1 market, which includes weight loss and diabetes treatments.
Investors should watch Medicare enrollment for obesity drugs starting in July, the launch of Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron expected in the second quarter, and whether Zepbound can maintain its dominant share of new prescriptions in the U.S. obesity market.
The company’s ability to sustain volume momentum despite lower prices will determine whether Eli Lilly stock continues its upward trajectory for the year.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
