Key Stats for Uber Stock
- Current Price: $71.51
- Target Price (Mid): ~$204
- Street Target: ~$101
- Potential Total Return: ~185%
- Annualized IRR: ~28% / year
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What Happened?
Uber Technologies (UBER) has beaten Wall Street’s EBITDA estimate in four of its last five quarters and missed its EBIT estimate in four of the same five. The share price looks more like the second record than the first. Shares have fallen 12.5% in 2026, from $81.71 at the end of 2025 to $71.51 at the October 9 close. Forward EV/EBITDA has dropped from around 16x to around 12x, even as the next-twelve-months EBITDA estimate rose about 22%.
That 22% rise partly reflects the forecast window moving into a later, larger period. The Street has actually cut its fiscal 2026 revenue estimate by about 4% since December. Uber’s next update, per its investor relations materials, comes on a November 4 call.
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Stock Pay and Legal Charges Sit Between EBITDA and EBIT
The gap between the two lines has a clear source. Uber’s adjusted EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation and legal charges. In 2025, adjusted EBITDA of $8.73 billion exceeded EBIT of $5.57 billion by $3.17 billion. Of that gap, stock-based compensation made up $1.83 billion, depreciation and amortization $719 million, and legal and regulatory reserves $564 million.
The second quarter of 2026 followed the same pattern. EBITDA rose 33% to $2.82 billion and beat the consensus of around $2.77 billion. But EBIT of $1.89 billion missed by 7.89%, operating cash flow missed by 15.51%, and revenue missed by 0.52%. Shares fell 5.29% on the August 5 report. Next-twelve-months normalized EPS estimates sit around $3.88. That is below the roughly $4.02 at the end of 2025, though up from around $3.31 in March.
Near-term margin relief is not the plan. At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said Uber would “take the savings there and essentially reinvest it back in the business, lowering prices, improving selection,” referring to its recent restructuring. Uber also agreed on October 6 to buy ezCater for $2.3 billion in cash. Its $14.8 billion Delivery Hero takeover offer remains pending, funded with cash and new debt.
Khosrowshahi Says the Spending Buys a Moat
Khosrowshahi argues that the spending builds durable advantages. When rivals start price wars, he said, “member category position stays very, very consistent,” while price-sensitive nonmembers can slip. He added that customers using several Uber services carry higher lifetime value: “A competitor who is mobility-only or is delivery-only structurally can’t pay as much as we can.” These are management’s characterizations, not disclosed metrics.
Delivery is where he sees the most room. Eats is “getting close to Rides as it relates to gross bookings,” he said, and “ultimately, we think that our Eats business could be even larger than our Rides business.” In 2025, Delivery revenue grew 25.4% to $17.25 billion, versus 18.3% for Mobility. Mobility’s $7.90 billion of segment adjusted EBITDA was still more than double Delivery’s $3.57 billion.
The Street has cooled. The mean target fell to around $101 from around $112 at the end of 2025, even after Wells Fargo raised its target to $92 from $89 on October 5. The breakdown stands at 32 Buys, 9 Outperforms, 8 Holds, 1 No Opinion, and 1 Sell.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $71.51
- Target Price (Mid): ~$204
- Potential Total Return: ~185%
- Annualized IRR: ~28% / year
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The mid case points to around $204 by December 31, 2030, a total return of around 185%, or about 28% a year from $71.51. Across its 2025 to 2035 forecast, the model assumes revenue growth of around 11% a year and net income margins near 15%. Delivery’s faster growth and steady Mobility gains drive revenue. Street estimates have adjusted EBITDA margins widening from 16.8% in 2025 toward around 24% by 2030.
The primary risk is that stock pay, legal charges, and deal costs keep EBIT trailing EBITDA. Upside comes if EBIT starts beating alongside EBITDA. The downside comes if price cuts absorb the margin gains, making the 12x multiple look deserved.
Conclusion
Third-quarter consensus sits around $2.92 billion for EBITDA, inside management’s $2.86 billion to $2.96 billion guide, and around $2.2 billion for EBIT. On November 4, the EBIT line matters more. A beat there would undercut the case for a 12x multiple. A fifth miss in six quarters would reinforce it.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
