Key Stats for Hims & Hers Stock
- Current Price: $30.92
- Target Price (Mid): ~$27
- Street Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return: ~(13%)
- Annualized IRR: ~(3%) / year
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What Happened?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed at $30.92 on October 9, up 10.19%, the session after it fell nearly 5%. No company-specific catalyst was reported, and coverage pointed to volume of 15.92 million shares, about 1.3 times the three-month average. The close left shares just below the Street’s mean target of about $31. On revenue, though, the Street and management are far apart. The company’s investor relations materials point to at least $6.5 billion by 2030, while TIKR consensus is about $4.6 billion.
A 2030 Goal That Needs Nearly Twice the Street’s Growth Rate
CFO Yemi Okupe closed his August 10 remarks by citing “our confidence in achieving our 2030 ambitions of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA.” The target dates to the company’s May 2025 roadmap. August 10 was the company’s first earnings call after the FTC sued.
Starting from the $3.2 billion midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance, the target needs roughly 19% compound annual growth. TIKR consensus implies about 10%, with growth slowing to about 7% in 2029 before revenue dips to around $4.6 billion in 2030. Only three analysts publish a 2030 revenue estimate.
The margin gap is wider. The target implies a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin. On the same call, Barclays analyst Glen Santangelo said guidance implies about 12% in the fourth quarter. Okupe did not address that figure and said he was not prepared to discuss 2027. In August, management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion but cut the top of its adjusted EBITDA range to $325 million from $350 million.
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Cash Flow Comes First, and Price Cuts Could Absorb the Savings
Management’s case depends on subscriber cohorts stacking up. Branded weight-loss subscriptions now bill monthly, and as customers stay longer, Okupe told Evercore’s Mark Mahaney, “That inherently results in both more revenue and EBITDA.” The nearer proof is cash. Second-quarter free cash flow was negative $68.19 million as working capital went into that business. Since the end of the first quarter, the company has added a $400 million receivables facility and more than $400 million in convertible debt. It ended June with more than $840 million in cash and short-term investments.
“Our expectation is to resume free cash flow generation in the second half of the year,” Okupe said. TIKR consensus calls for about $72 million of free cash flow in 2026 and about $341 million in 2027.
Not every dollar of savings will reach margins. Okupe said a portion of AI efficiencies will reach weight-loss subscribers by year-end “in the form of lower prices and/or additional tools.” In late September, the company extended its AI-native care platform to Hims weight-loss members.
The FTC, joined by Utah and California, sued on July 29 over billing and data practices, and a securities class action followed. The company is contesting the FTC case, and the allegations in both suits are unproven. Analysts stand at 1 Buy, 2 Outperforms, 12 Holds, 1 No Opinion, and 1 Underperform.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $30.92
- Target Price (Mid): ~$27
- Potential Total Return: ~(13%)
- Annualized IRR: ~(3%) / year
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The TIKR model’s mid-case, the base scenario, values Hims & Hers at about $27 by December 31, 2030. That is roughly a 13% loss from $30.92, or about 3% a year over 4.2 years, and it lands below both the share price and the Street’s mean target.
Revenue upside depends on two things: international markets, guided to at least $600 million in 2026 at roughly breakeven, and newer specialties such as testosterone. On margins, the driver is a lower cost to serve as AI takes on support work. The main risk is that price cuts and legal costs absorb those savings. If revenue tracks toward $6.5 billion, the mid-case looks too conservative. If growth fades as consensus expects, shares could give back more than the October 9 gain.
Conclusion
The third-quarter report, expected in early November, is the first check. TIKR consensus expects about $893 million in revenue and about $85 million in EBITDA. Positive free cash flow alongside those figures would support Okupe’s second-half promise. Another cash outflow would push the turnaround into the fourth quarter and weaken the case that cohort stacking is working.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
