Key Stats for GE Vernova Stock
- Current Price: $1,004.73
- Target Price (Mid): ~$3,720
- Street Target: ~$1,225
- Potential Total Return: ~270%
- Annualized IRR: ~36% / year
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What Happened?
GE Vernova (GEV) has beaten Wall Street’s revenue estimate in each of the last five quarters and missed its EBIT estimate in all five, according to TIKR data. The misses have not held the stock back. Shares closed at $1,004.73 on October 9, up 53.7% in 2026. Third-quarter results arrive on October 28, according to GE Vernova’s investor relations materials, and consensus has EBIT nearly doubling from Q2.
Five EBIT Misses, All Below the EBITDA Line
From Q2 2025 through Q2 2026, EBIT as TIKR reports it fell short of the average estimate by 14% to 64%. EBITDA was a different story: across the five quarters combined, it landed within about $3 million of estimates. The whole shortfall sits between EBITDA and EBIT, where analyst estimates and reported figures may not treat every charge the same way.
That gap has widened. EBITDA minus EBIT grew from $392 million in Q2 2025 to $597 million in Q2 2026. Over the same period, depreciation and amortization rose from $202 million to $418 million, according to the second-quarter press release, an increase roughly the size of the widening. The rise coincides with the Prolec GE acquisition in February.
On the top line, Q2 was strong. Revenue rose 21.87% to $11.10 billion (12% organically), ahead of the roughly $10.8 billion estimate. On July 22, GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion and its free cash flow guidance to $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion. It held its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance at 12% to 14%. Shares fell 8.69% that day.
Q3 estimates again assume a smaller gap. The average EBITDA estimate of around $1.68 billion and the average EBIT estimate of around $1.27 billion sit about $410 million apart. Q2’s actual gap was $597 million.
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Strazik Says the Margin Proof Lands in January
At Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference on September 16, CEO and President Scott Strazik pointed to a figure GE Vernova plans to show at its January earnings call: the change in margin in its equipment backlog. For Power, “the change in margin in backlog in ‘25 was low double digits,” and he expects the 2026 change to be larger. He called it “a very important page because that really tells you the equipment margins for ‘29 and ‘30 largely.”
He also said growth in customer deposits has trailed the margin booked into backlog: “the cash is less than the incremental profit that we’re booking.” That compares deposits with backlog margin, not with reported earnings, and it is management’s characterization.
He also flagged one soft spot ahead of time. Data center orders made up almost 40% of Electrification orders in the first half, and he expects that share to be “probably more like 20%” in Q3 and Q4, with backlog still growing. An India HVDC award worth almost $1.5 billion is slated to book as a fourth-quarter order.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $1,004.73
- Target Price (Mid): ~$3,720
- Potential Total Return: ~270%
- Annualized IRR: ~36% / year
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The mid case is used because its December 31, 2030, horizon covers the 2029 and 2030 deliveries that Strazik says this year’s backlog margins describe. From $1,004.73, it reaches around $3,720, about three times the Street mean target of around $1,225.
The case needs reported earnings, not just EBITDA, to compound. That makes the size of the EBITDA-to-EBIT gap a live variable. Upside comes if January’s Power backlog margin change tops 2025’s low double digits. On the downside, the Street’s lowest target, $940, sits about 6% below the October 9 close. The output is a scenario, not a forecast.
Conclusion
On October 28, the line to check is the distance between EBITDA and EBIT. A gap near the roughly $410 million that estimates imply would end the streak. One near Q2’s $597 million points to a sixth miss even if EBITDA lands on target. In January, Power’s 2026 backlog margin change will show whether 2029 and 2030 equipment margins are rising faster than 2025’s low double digits.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
