Key Stats for Snowflake Stock
- Current Price: $368.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$877
- Street Target: ~$425
- Potential Total Return: ~138%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
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What Happened?
Snowflake (SNOW) closed at $368.89 on October 9, up 7.42%. StockStory tied the move to Snowflake’s Agentic Marketplace Discovery public preview, released as tech shares rebounded from an October 8 selloff that CNBC linked to an OpenAI revenue update. StockStory called the news meaningful but not something that changes how the market sees the business. Shares have more than tripled from their April 10 intraday low of $118.30. Even so, the guidance in Snowflake’s investor relations materials still discounts its AI coding agent, by the CFO’s own account.
Snowflake Haircuts CoCo in Its Guide. Analysts Keep Raising Estimates
CFO Brian Robins spoke at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 15. He said machine-learning models forecast the core consumption business every night, with a very small standard deviation, while new products are harder. On CoCo, he said “I think it would somewhat be reckless to extract that out and just apply that to guidance,” so Snowflake applies “a haircut.” He added: “Now we have 2 quarters’ worth of data. So we’re getting closer to what that number is.”
CoCo reached about 9,100 accounts in the July quarter, up more than 2,000 during the quarter, and a little over 5,000 accounts use Cowork. Analysts have raised revenue estimates after each of the last two reports. Fiscal 2027 consensus is up about 7% since the March 31 snapshot, and fiscal 2028 about 10%.
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Faster Migrations Help the Core, but Cash and Security Risk Remain
Robins said Snowflake’s migration team cut migration time from around 10 or 11 months to around 6 using CoCo skills and agents. He also said Snowflake has “canceled all of our BI and analytics contracts” in favor of CoCo dashboards. The same toolkit can shrink bills: a cost optimization skill ranks among CoCo’s top 10 skills, and consumption customers who optimize pay less.
Cash and profits trail. July-quarter free cash flow of $83.80 million missed the $107.27 million estimate by 21.87%, the third miss in five quarters. GAAP EPS was a $0.55 loss, narrower than the $0.77 loss expected. The stock trades at 146 times NTM normalized P/E and 18 times NTM enterprise value to revenue. Ratings stand at 36 Buy, 9 Outperform, 5 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell, and 1 No Opinion.
September’s $3.75 billion of 0% convertible notes adds potential dilution. On October 8, ASOS (ASC) confirmed a breach of customer data held on a third-party platform it uses to message customers. BleepingComputer reported the attackers reached its Snowflake instance with credentials obtained by impersonating a trusted contact, a detail ASOS has not confirmed. Snowflake says its own platform was not breached, but credential attacks on customer accounts have hit its users before, in 2024.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $368.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$877
- Potential Total Return: ~138%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case targets around $877 by January 31, 2031. That is about a 138% total return from the $368.89 close, or roughly 22% a year. It is a scenario, not a forecast. The horizon year rests on thin coverage: only three analysts estimate fiscal 2031 revenue. The primary risk is cash conversion trailing revenue growth. On a 12-month view, Street targets run from $110, about 70% below the October 9 close, to $525.
Conclusion
Expedition streams from November 3 to 5. It opens with a pre-recorded conversation between CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy and Microsoft (MSFT) Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella. The real test is the October-quarter results, expected around December 2 but unconfirmed, with analysts modeling about 36% revenue growth. If CoCo adds another 2,000-plus accounts and revenue growth comes in above that line, the haircut was too deep. A smaller account gain would show management was right to trim it.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
