Key Takeaways
- Unusual Machines closed at $21.88 on Oct. 7, 36% below its Aug. 14 closing high of $34.06.
- Needham reiterated its Buy rating and $40 price target on Oct. 7, 83% above that close.
- All eight analysts on TIKR rate the stock a Buy or Outperform, and it trades at 14.2x forward sales, near the low end of its range over the past year.
- Needham’s target implies 26.0x forward sales, a bit above the stock’s one-year average of 22.9x, so the numbers back the call if the fourth-quarter ramp arrives.
Unusual Machines (UMAC) closed at $21.88 on Oct. 7, 36% below its closing high of $34.06 on Aug. 14. The same day, Needham’s Austin Bohlig reiterated his Buy rating and $40 price target, 83% above that close.
Where the slide started
The setup came on Aug. 6. Second-quarter revenue jumped 687% from a year earlier to $16.7 million. But CEO Allan Evans warned in his shareholder letter that “we do not expect Q3 revenue to follow this historical quarterly pattern.” On the call, he gave internal targets of $12 million to $14 million for the third quarter and $25 million for the fourth.
The stock still peaked on Aug. 14, the day drone stocks rallied after President Trump ordered tariffs on foreign-made drone components.
My read (and this is pure speculation) is that the tariff pop has faded while investors wait out a quarter they were told would be softer.
What Needham sees
Bohlig raised his target to $40 from $30 on Aug. 6, and he’s sticking with it. Back in June, when he lifted it to $30, he said demand for U.S.-made drone components “continues to far exceed available supply.”
Does $40 add up?
All eight analysts on TIKR rate the stock a Buy or Outperform, and their mean target has sat at $39 since Aug. 17 as the price fell away.
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $11.2 million in 2025 to $56.4 million in 2026 and $112 million in 2027 (consensus as of Aug. 17).
Add Evans’ second-half targets to the $24.8 million the company booked in the first half, and 2026 beats that consensus even at the low end of his range. Nothing since August argues for cutting it.
At 14.2x forward sales on Oct. 7, the stock trades close to its 13.8x low of the past year (Nov. 20, 2025) and well under its 22.9x average.
Here’s the math on Needham’s call. At $21.88 and 14.2x, each share carries $1.54 of forward sales. Divide the $40 target by $1.54, and you get 26.0x. That’s a bit above the stock’s one-year average and far below its 39.7x peak on June 2.
What it hinges on
The fourth quarter depends on Drone Dominance orders flowing to Unusual Machines’ customers, and its largest customer made up 42% of second-quarter revenue.
Still, I think the numbers back Needham. The third-quarter report is the next test: watch whether Evans still sees $25 million for the fourth quarter.
So what is Unusual Machines stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
