Key Stats for Texas Instruments Stock
- Current Price: $322.86
- Target Price (Mid): ~$510
- Street Target: ~$294
- Potential Total Return: ~58%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
- Earnings Reaction: 19.43% (April 22, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 30.70% (November 20, 2025)
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What Happened?
Texas Instruments (TXN) is no longer the boring chip stock, and the market has stopped treating it like one. Shares closed at $322.86 on June 18, 2026, up 6.95% on the day. The stock has now climbed roughly 80% in 2026, a remarkable run for a name that spent most of 2025 grinding lower while Nvidia and AMD soaked up the AI headlines.
The spark was a Wall Street call. On June 15, Citi analyst Christopher Danely raised his target to $345 from $280 and reiterated TXN as a top semiconductor pick, citing recent product price increases and TI’s expanding share of the data center power market. The market bought the thesis, and then some.
Here is the tension. After an 80% sprint, TXN trades above the average Wall Street target of around $294. The same analysts cheering the recovery are, on average, modeling a price below where the stock already sits. The question is not whether Texas Instruments is a good business. It clearly is. The question is whether buyers are paying for a recovery that has already happened.
What Citi Is Actually Betting On
Citi’s call rests on one idea: that data center power becomes a real growth engine for TI, not a rounding error. The data backs the urgency. Data center revenue grew about 90% year-over-year in the first quarter and reached 12% of the total, up from 9% in 2025.
Texas Instruments makes the unglamorous analog and embedded parts (the power, signal chain, and sensing chips) that sit by the thousands inside every AI server rack. CEO Haviv Ilan sized the prize at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on May 28. He pegged TI’s data center addressable market at roughly $7.5 billion last year, with TI capturing about $1.5 billion, or a 20% share.
“I call the TAM at about 65% growth,” Ilan said. “So far, 1 quarter, we grew 90% year-over-year.” That gap between market growth and TI’s growth is the share gain Citi is paying for, and Ilan put the content opportunity “in the tens of thousands of dollars per rack.”
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The Recovery Is Real, but the Price Reflects It
Strip out the AI narrative, and a genuine cyclical turn remains. Industrial, historically TI’s largest end market, fell almost 50% from its peak during the downturn. In the first quarter, it grew close to 35% year-over-year, yet still sits roughly 15% below that old peak.
That detail is the bull’s best argument that the recovery has room to run. Ilan was candid: “I think it’s very early in the, hopefully, the recovery phase. And typically, in the early phase, customers are not building inventory.” This is not a restocking head-fake.
The earnings confirmed it. First quarter revenue grew about 19% to $4.83 billion, the fastest pace since the pandemic supercycle, with adjusted EPS of $1.71. The stock reacted with a 19.43% single-day jump on April 22, 2026.
So why the caution? Valuation now leans on the recovery being durable, not just real. TXN trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA of 26.15x and an NTM P/E of 39.12x. For a company whose 10-year revenue CAGR is just 3.1%, that is a rich multiple.
The peer comparison sharpens it. TXN’s 39.12x forward P/E sits well above Broadcom at 26.13x, Qualcomm at 23.14x, and Taiwan Semiconductor at 22.92x. That premium is defensible only if TI’s free cash flow inflection plays out as modeled.
There is also a leadership change to track. On June 2, TI named Julie Knecht as its next CFO, effective August 1, 2026, succeeding Rafael Lizardi, who is retiring after 25 years. TI said the move is unrelated to financial results, and Knecht is an internal promotion, so continuity on capital allocation is the expectation.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $322.86
- Target Price (Mid): ~$510
- Potential Total Return: ~58%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
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That mid-case target sits above today’s price even after the 80% run, so the model still sees value if the fundamentals deliver.
Two revenue drivers anchor the case. The first is the data center ramp, where TI grew 90% year-over-year against a market growing around 65%. The second is the industrial recovery, still 15% below its prior peak. The mid-case models’ revenue growth is around 10% per year.
The margin driver is internalization: as TI moves production into its Lehi fab and grows into its Sherman capacity, the mid-case supports a net income margin near 37%. The primary risk is depreciation, a step-up of roughly $350 million in 2026 that pressures margins if revenue disappoints.
The upside: data center share gains and a full industrial recovery push results toward the model’s high scenario. The downside: the industrial rebound stalls, the Silicon Labs deal faces China regulatory delay, and the multiple compresses toward the low-case path.
Conclusion
The next real test is second-quarter earnings on July 22, 2026, and the number that matters most is data center growth. TI grew that segment 90% year-over-year last quarter against a market expanding around 65%. Anything that holds near or above that pace confirms the share-gain thesis Citi is paying $345 for. A deceleration toward the market’s rate would be the first crack.
Watch the industrial commentary just as closely. Management called the recovery early-stage and still 15% below peak, so a second straight quarter of broad sequential growth would turn a hopeful turn into a confirmed one. Anything softer, after an 80% run and a multiple that prices in durability, and the stock has room to fall back toward the Street’s average target. The thesis gets confirmed or broken in late July.
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Should You Invest in Texas Instruments?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Texas Instruments, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
