Key Takeaways:
- Record Cash Flow: Newmont generated $3.1 billion in free cash flow in Q1, an all-time quarterly record.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, NEM stock could reach $122 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: That target points to a 15% total return from the current price of $105.80.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 6% annual growth over the next 2.5 years.
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Newmont (NEM) delivered a strong Q1 in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.2 billion, and adjusted EPS came in at $2.90 per diluted share.
The company produced 1.3 million ounces of gold, along with meaningful copper and silver output, supporting a favorable cost profile.
- Gold all-in sustaining costs were $1,029 per ounce, below full-year guidance.
- Cash flow from operations hit $3.8 billion after working capital, even with roughly $1.3 billion in cash tax payments.
- Newmont received $321 million in after-tax proceeds from equity investment sales, bringing total noncore divestiture proceeds to over $4.6 billion.
- The Board approved a new $6 billion share repurchase authorization, the fourth since February 2024.
- Total returns to shareholders since the last earnings call reached $2.7 billion through dividends and buybacks.
Newmont trades at $105.80. For investors who believe gold prices have further room to run, the stock offers meaningful exposure through the world’s largest gold miner.
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What the Model Says for Newmont Stock
We looked at Newmont as the gold price cycle intersects with a major improvement in the company’s operational execution.
After completing a large acquisition and divesting over $4.6 billion in non-core assets, Newmont is now a leaner, more focused business.
Management described 2026 as a production trough year, with output expected to grow back toward 6 million ounces as higher-grade areas come online at Lihir, Cadia, Boddington, and Ahafo North.
The capital allocation framework adds a layer of predictability rarely seen in mining. A $1.1 billion annual dividend is paid quarterly.
Once sustaining and development capital needs are met, surplus cash goes straight to buybacks. Per-share free cash flow is already 6% higher than before the repurchase program began.
Near-term noise at Cadia, following a magnitude 4.5 earthquake in April, is expected to be resolved by the end of Q2. Underground rehabilitation is already underway, and operations are expected to return to 80% capacity within five weeks. Surface infrastructure sustained no damage.
Using 11% annual revenue growth and 59% operating margins, our model projects the stock reaching $122 within 2.5 years.
This assumes a 9.9x price-to-earnings multiple, flat with the current forward P/E.
The conservative multiple reflects gold mining’s inherent commodity exposure and cost headwinds from rising energy prices.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for NEM stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 11%
Newmont has grown revenue 21% over the past year and nearly 24% annually over three years, driven by higher gold prices and production from new assets.
The near-term growth assumption moderates as Cadia recovers and the production mix normalizes. Revenue upside is closely tied to gold prices, which have been supportive.
Full-year 2026 production guidance of 5.3 million ounces remains intact.
2. Operating margins: 59%
EBIT margins hit 48.4% over the trailing year, up sharply from average of over three years.
Q1 benefited from strong co-product pricing, particularly silver. Management is maintaining cost guidance despite rising fuel prices, citing active productivity improvements and supply chain discipline.
For every $10 per barrel move in oil, all-in sustaining costs shift by roughly $12 per ounce.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 9.9x
Newmont trades near 9.9x forward earnings today, well below its 10-year average of nearly 20x.
We hold the multiple flat given commodity price uncertainty. If gold prices remain elevated and the production growth trajectory holds, there is meaningful re-rating potential.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Gold miners face commodity cycles, geopolitical risk, and operational complexity. Here’s how Newmont stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue grows 9.2% a year and net margins settle near 36.4%, investors see a 21.4% total return (4.4% annually).
- Mid Case: With 10.2% growth and 38.9% margins, the model points to a 53.6% total return (9.9% annually).
- High Case: If gold prices lift revenue growth to 11.2% and margins reach 40.4%, returns could hit 87.1% total (14.8% annually).
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The range depends on gold prices, the pace of production recovery, and how quickly higher-grade areas ramp at key mines.
In the low case, energy costs erode margins, the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture dispute with Barrick drags on, and production growth disappoints.
In the high case, gold prices hold, the Cadia recovery completes on schedule, and the ramp at Lihir and Boddington delivers ahead of plan.
How Much Upside Does Newmont Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
