Key Stats for TXN Stock
- 52-Week Range: $152.73 – $331.51
- Current Price: $301.12
- Street Mean Target: ~$292
- TIKR Target Price (Mid): ~$800
- TIKR Annualized IRR (Mid): ~12% per year
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $4.83B (up 19% year over year)
- Q1 2026 EPS: $1.68 (up 31% year over year)
- Q1 2026 Gross Margin: 58%
- Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow: $4.4B
- Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance: $5.0B – $5.4B
Analyze your favorite stocks like Texas Instruments Incorporated with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
Industrial Up 30%, Data Center Up 90%: The Recovery Is Broad-Based
Texas Instruments (TXN) makes analog and embedded processing chips, the unglamorous but essential semiconductors that go into factory equipment, cars, power grids, and increasingly, data centers. The company spent 2023 and 2024 absorbing the cost of a massive manufacturing expansion while its end markets were in a cyclical downturn. Investors were patient, and Q1 2026 is where that patience started to pay off.
Revenue came in at $4.83 billion, up 19% year over year and 9% sequentially, beating the top end of guidance. Industrial revenue grew more than 30% year over year across all sectors and regions. Data center revenue grew roughly 90%. CEO Haviv Ilan described it as the first quarter in which the broad industrial market, what TI calls “the tail,” began to wake up again after a long hibernation.
Q2 guidance called for revenue of $5.0 billion to $5.4 billion and EPS of $1.77 to $2.05, comfortably above the $1.58 consensus estimate at the time. That raise told investors the recovery is building, not fading.
Value Texas Instruments Incorporated instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
The Free Cash Flow Chart Shows Exactly What the 300mm Bet Cost
Free cash flow tells the clearest version of the TXN story over the past four years. It peaked at $6.3 billion in 2021, then fell sharply to $1.3 billion in 2023 as capital expenditures surged to fund the buildout of 300mm wafer manufacturing facilities.
Those factories produce chips at significantly lower cost per unit than older 150mm and 200mm fabs, giving TI a structural cost advantage that compounds over time as utilization rises.
The rebound is already underway, and annual FCF recovered to $2.6 billion in 2025, and on a trailing 12-month basis through Q1 2026, it reached $4.4 billion, a 154% year-over-year jump.
Capital expenditures are also declining, falling to $676 million in Q1 2026 from $1.1 billion in Q1 2025, as the heaviest phase of construction winds down. The trough in this chart was not a business deterioration, it was a business investment.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Texas Instruments Incorporated (It’s free) >>>
What the EPS Inflection Says About Where TXN Is Headed
Earnings per share bottomed at $1.31 in Q4 2025 and climbed to $1.71 in Q1 2026, with consensus expecting a steady march toward $2.37 by early 2027. The shape of that curve matters as much as the numbers, it is a clean, broad-based recovery rather than a one-quarter spike driven by a single end market.
The analog segment, which generates the majority of TI’s revenue, posted operating profit of $1.6 billion in Q1 at a 42% margin. Embedded Processing swung to $122 million in operating profit, up more than 200% year over year.
Both segments are recovering simultaneously, which is what gives the forward EPS curve its durability. The Silicon Labs acquisition, a $7.5 billion all-cash deal expected to close in the first half of 2027, adds embedded processing scale that could push estimates higher once it closes.
What the Valuation Model Says About a Stock Already Up 70% This Year
The TIKR model mid case targets around $800, implying a total return of roughly 165% over the next 4.5 years, or about 12% annually.
The high case reaches around $1,000, translating to roughly 15% per year. The scenario range skews meaningfully to the upside and is driven almost entirely by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion, the model assumes the P/E stays roughly flat while EPS compounds around 15% annually through 2030.
At a current NTM P/E of around 37x, TXN is not cheap in an absolute sense. The bull case rests on the idea that, as 300mm utilization rises and FCF recovers toward prior peaks, the business’s earnings power has been systematically underestimated during the downcycle.
The bear case is simpler: the stock has already run 70% year to date, and a softening in industrial demand or a delay in the Silicon Labs integration could compress both earnings and the multiple.
What the Bulls Are Betting On
- The 300mm advantage compounds as utilization rises. Higher factory utilization means lower cost per chip, which expands margins without requiring revenue growth to do the heavy lifting
- Industrial recovery is broad and early. TI’s CEO noted the broad market is just beginning to wake up, suggesting the 30% year-over-year growth in Q1 is a starting point rather than a peak
- Data center is a new growth vector. The 90% year-over-year jump in data center revenue reflects genuine secular demand for analog power management chips in AI infrastructure
What the Bears Are Watching
- Automotive revenue is stalling. Flat sequential performance with China declining is a real concern for a segment that was supposed to be a long-term growth driver
- The stock has priced in a lot. At 37x forward earnings, TXN is trading well above its historical average, leaving limited room for execution stumbles
- Silicon Labs integration risk. A $7.5 billion acquisition adds complexity and leverage at a moment when the company is still emerging from a capex-heavy period
Value Texas Instruments Incorporated in under 60 seconds with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
Should You Invest in Texas Instruments?
Texas Instruments is a rare semiconductor company that competes on manufacturing durability rather than design cycles.
The 300mm buildout was painful, and the market punished the stock for it. The argument now is that the punishment is over and the payoff is beginning, with FCF recovering, EPS inflecting, and two major end markets growing faster than anyone expected.
The TIKR model mid-case at around 12% annually is a reasonable return for a business of this quality if the industrial recovery holds. The risk is that 70% of that return has to come from earnings growth over the next four years, which requires the cycle to cooperate.
Put TIKR to work on your own research. You can build your own valuation model on TXN or analyze every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the tools you need to decide for yourself.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
