Key Stats for TXN Stock
- Past-30-Day Performance: 31%
- 52-Week Range: $153 to $316
- Valuation Model Target Price: Around $410
- Implied Upside: About 34%
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What Happened?
Texas Instruments Incorporated stock rose about 31% over the last 30 days, recently trading near $309 per share as investors reacted to stronger Q1 results, upbeat Q2 guidance, analyst target increases, and growing optimism around the company’s power chips for AI data centers.
The stock moved higher because TXN’s Q1 report gave investors evidence that the analog-chip recovery is no longer just theoretical: revenue grew 19%, industrial demand rebounded sharply, data-center revenue nearly doubled, and multiple analysts raised or upgraded the stock as they tied Texas Instruments’ power chips more directly to AI infrastructure demand.
Texas Instruments competes with analog and power semiconductor peers such as Analog Devices, Infineon, ON Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductors, and Microchip Technology, and the market is increasingly rewarding companies tied to data-center power, factory automation, and automotive electronics.
Seaport Research upgraded TXN to Buy with a $400 price target, citing demand for power analog chips used to regulate and deliver electricity inside AI servers and data-center racks, while Mizuho raised its target to $300 from $255 and BofA upgraded the stock to Buy with a $320 target.
This past month’s earnings call showed Texas Instruments delivered stronger-than-expected Q1 results, with revenue rising 19% year over year to $4.8 billion, EPS of $1.68, and second-quarter guidance for $5.0 billion to $5.4 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.77 to $2.05.
CEO Haviv Ilan said revenue came in above the top of the range as TI saw “continued acceleration in industrial and data center,” with industrial revenue up more than 30% year over year and data-center revenue up about 90%. The company also highlighted the pending Silicon Labs acquisition, expected to close in the first half of 2027, while trailing 12-month free cash flow improved to $4.4 billion from $1.7 billion as growth returned and CapEx began to moderate.
Recent institutional filings showed active but mixed positioning as TXN approached new highs. Creative Financial Designs increased its stake by 3,732% to 6,553 shares, Harvest Portfolios boosted its position by 23% to 176,503 shares, and Envestnet Portfolio Solutions increased its stake by 13% to 47,760 shares, while larger holders including PNC Financial Services, HighTower Advisors, Rathbones Group, FourThought Financial Partners, Tredje AP fonden, and Resona Asset Management trimmed exposure. The mixed activity suggests some investors were leaning into the AI power-chip and industrial recovery story, while others were taking profits after the stock’s sharp 30-day rally.
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Is TXN Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 13%
- Operating Margins: 42%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 31x
Texas Instruments appears undervalued based on the valuation model, but the setup now depends on the company turning its recent demand rebound into stronger earnings through 2026.
The 13% revenue growth assumption is supported by a recovery in industrial chips, steady automotive chip content growth, stronger AI data-center power demand, and the potential longer-term benefit from Silicon Labs’ embedded wireless portfolio.
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The biggest swing factor is margin recovery, since TXN has spent heavily on new 300mm manufacturing capacity, and higher factory utilization could help profits grow faster than revenue if demand keeps improving.
This is the key business lever: TXN does not need explosive unit growth if revenue keeps recovering, factories run more efficiently, and free cash flow rebounds as CapEx moderates.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of around $410, implying about 34% total upside.
At current levels, Texas Instruments appears undervalued, with 2026 performance likely driven by analog demand recovery, AI-related power-management growth, better factory utilization, and stronger free cash flow as CapEx moderates.
How Much Upside Does TXN Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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