Key Stats for Advanced Drainage Systems Stock
- Current Price: ~$133 (May 22, 2026)
- Q4 FY2026 Revenue: $677M, +10% YoY
- Q4 FY2026 Adj. EPS: $1.07, +3.9% YoY
- Q4 FY2026 Revenue Beat vs. Street: +3.7%
- Q4 FY2026 Adj. EPS Beat vs. Street: +10.3%
- Full-Year Free Cash Flow: $569M
- Full-Year Adj. EBITDA Margin: 31.6%
- FY2027 Revenue Guidance: $3.35B–$3.55B
- FY2027 Adj. EBITDA Guidance: $1.0B–$1.5B
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$200
- Implied Upside: ~50%
Advanced Drainage Systems Beats Q4 Estimates, but EBIT Tells a Different Story
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) closed fiscal year 2026 with a Q4 revenue beat, reporting $677M against the Street estimate of $653M, while adjusted EPS of $1.07 surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.97 by 10%.
The top-line outperformance was driven by Allied Products, which grew 43% in the quarter including a $49M contribution from the NDS acquisition that closed February 2.
On an organic basis, Stormwater revenue increased 2%, with Allied Products delivering 12% organic growth, while Pipe revenue declined 2% due to softness in residential and infrastructure markets.
Wastewater revenue increased 4%, with tank products growing double digits driven by material conversion, product line expansion, and additional distribution, according to Craig Taylor, President of Infiltrator, on the Q4 2026 earnings call.
D. Barbour, President and CEO, stated on the Q4 2026 earnings call that the company “significantly outperformed our 2 largest markets, nonresidential and residential, increasing 8% and 7%, respectively,” while describing the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6% as the second highest in company history.
For the full fiscal year, Advanced Drainage Systems stock is backed by $569M in free cash flow compared to $369M in the prior year, a return of $155M to shareholders (a 29% increase year over year), and a year-end leverage ratio of 1.6x after funding the $1B NDS acquisition almost entirely with cash on hand.
For FY2027, ADS guided revenue of $3.35B–$3.55B and adjusted EBITDA of $1.0B–$1.5B, with approximately $300M from NDS included for the full fiscal year, and noted that revenue seasonality is expected to follow the normal 55% first-half weighting.
TIKR’s ~$200 Target on Advanced Drainage Systems Stock Requires Inflation to Clear in FY2027
TIKR’s mid-case values Advanced Drainage Systems stock at approximately $200, representing a 50% total return from the current price of $133 over 6 years, or 8.7% annualized.
The scenario that gets Advanced Drainage Systems stock to $277 at an 8.6% IRR is one where NDS cross-selling gains traction ahead of the three-year synergy schedule, the residential market recovers as interest rates ease, and the Southeast recycling capacity expansion offsets the input cost inflation management flagged for FY2027.
The mid case at $229 and a 6.3% IRR assumes a 5% revenue CAGR with net income margins holding near current levels, requiring the dollar-for-dollar pricing strategy to hold as intended and the Q1 volume air pocket to normalize within the first half of the fiscal year, as ADS guided.
The low case at $185 and a 3.8% IRR reflects a world where material cost and transportation inflation prove stickier than assumed, margin compression extends deeper into the year, and the modest P/E expansion TIKR’s low case embeds does not materialize.
Should You Invest in Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.?
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