Key Takeaways for Take-Two Stock as of August 2026
- Modest Beat: Take-Two posted Q1 net bookings of $1.39B, above its own $1.32B-$1.37B guide, with adjusted EPS of $0.35 topping estimates even as earnings fell 42% YoY from $0.61.
- Outlook Intact: Management reiterated FY2027 net bookings of $8B-$8.2B, about 20% growth, while guiding Q2 to $1.62B-$1.67B against $1.96B a year ago.
- 2K Records: NBA 2K26 sold in over 12M units, up 9% YoY, and recurrent spending fell just 1% versus the 3% decline guided.
- Preorder Restraint: GTA VI ships November 19, but Take-Two held guidance despite unprecedented preorders.
See why Take-Two froze its outlook even as GTA VI preorders shattered records: track TTWO’s guidance and live-service trends on TIKR for free →
Take-Two Beat on a Quiet Quarter, Then Refused to Bank on GTA VI
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) delivered first-quarter fiscal 2027 net bookings of $1.39 billion on August 7, edging past the high end of its own $1.32 billion to $1.37 billion guidance and beating on adjusted earnings of $0.35 a share. The quarter mattered less for what it printed than for what it protected: the November 19 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, the release the entire fiscal year now hinges on.
The upside came from live service, not new releases. NBA 2K grew 7% in the period and the Grand Theft Auto series rose 3%, together holding recurrent consumer spending to a 1% decline against management’s guide of a 3% drop. That spending still accounts for 84% of net bookings, the ballast that carries Take-Two stock through a quarter with no marquee launch.
NBA 2K26 closed a record year for the franchise. It sold in over 12 million units for 9% growth over the prior edition, with daily active users up 15% and average games played per user up 35%. GTA V, thirteen years on, has now sold in more than 230 million units worldwide.
Not everything ran clean. GAAP net revenue rose just 2% to $1.5 billion while cost of revenue jumped 17% to $651 million, dragged by a $43 million impairment tied to a scrapped title from a third-party developer. Adjusted EPS, though ahead of expectations, fell 42% from $0.61 a year ago, and mobile net bookings slid 7% as Color Block Jam lapped a hard comparison.
Management reiterated the full-year outlook of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, roughly 20% growth, and left it there despite a preorder wave that CEO Strauss Zelnick refused to understate on the Q1 earnings call: “our preorders are exceptional. No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two or in the industry.” Zelnick paired that with a blunt caveat that the company has not sold a single unit and that a preorder can be canceled, the reason the guide stayed frozen. That $8.2 billion ceiling is the first outlook management has pinned to a hard Grand Theft Auto VI date, and it leans on units rather than recurrent spend, which parks the entire year’s growth case on how many copies sell in the launch window.
The near term softens before it inflects. Take-Two guided second-quarter net bookings to $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion, down from $1.96 billion a year ago, with NBA 2K27 arriving September 4. Operating cash flow should clear $1 billion, and the company expects a net cash position by fiscal year-end, right as GTA VI decides whether that 20% growth target proves conservative.
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TIKR Values Take-Two Stock at $462, With GTA VI Priced as Upside
TIKR’s mid-case model values Take-Two at $462 by March 2031, implying 88% total return from the current price of $247, or 15% annualized over the next 4.6 years.
A 15% annualized return puts Take-Two stock well above the mid-single-digit compounding a mature software name typically offers, a gap that reflects earnings power the market has not yet paid for.
The target is reachable on dynamics already visible in the quarter: live-service spending holding at 84% of net bookings while GTA VI arrives November 19 into demand management calls unprecedented. That launch, not the current run-rate, is what closes the distance to $462.
TIKR’s model sees 88% upside to $462. See the full Take-Two valuation on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
