Key Takeaways for Take-Two Interactive Stock as of July 2026
- TIKR’s valuation model prices Take-Two stock at $421 by March 2031, a 78% total return from today’s $237, or 13% annualized.
- Twenty-six of 29 covering analysts rate Take-Two stock a buy, with only one hold and one underperform on the books.
- Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for net bookings of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, roughly 20% growth, anchored by Grand Theft Auto VI’s November 19 launch.
- Shares still sit 10% below their 52-week high even after a fiscal year that beat every guidance range management set.
GTA VI’s November 19 Date Locks In Take-Two’s Biggest Guidance Jump Yet
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) closed fiscal 2026 with net bookings of $6.72 billion, above the high end of its own guidance range, and followed it with an initial fiscal 2027 outlook of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, about 20% growth. The driver is dated: Grand Theft Auto VI ships November 19, and Rockstar Games begins marketing this summer. That single release date now anchors the largest single-year bookings jump in company history.
CEO Strauss Zelnick tied the guidance directly to the launch on the Q4 earnings call: “Fiscal 2027 is poised to be a breakout year for Take-Two, led by the November 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI, arguably the most anticipated entertainment property of all time.” He followed with the number itself: “Our initial financial outlook for fiscal 2027 includes record net bookings of $8 billion to $8.2 billion.” That guidance came alongside recurrent consumer spending growth of 17% in fiscal 2026, with NBA 2K up over 30% and mobile up 13%, both sharply ahead of the initial May 2025 forecast.
What makes the November date the real story, not just the headline, is what it does to the base the company grows from. Management expects operating cash flow above $1 billion in fiscal 2027 and a shift to a net cash position by fiscal year end, funded by a franchise base that already sold in 230 million units of Grand Theft Auto V and 85 million of Red Dead Redemption 2. Zelnick called the release “a new benchmark, a new standard for this company going forward.” That’s the repricing event: not GTA VI’s existence, which the market has known about for years, but a confirmed date that turns a multi-year guessing game into a bookable fiscal 2027 number.
Take-Two Stock Trades Below Its 52-Week High Despite Record Guidance
Take-Two stock hit a maximum drawdown of 28% on March 27, 2026, well before fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 guidance were public. Shares have since clawed back to a 10% drawdown from their high, even after posting record net bookings and issuing 20% growth guidance tied to a confirmed GTA VI date.
The gap between the March trough and today suggests the market priced in launch-date uncertainty that the November 19 announcement has since resolved.
Street coverage backs that read. Of 29 analysts, 26 rate Take-Two stock a buy, two rate it outperform, one holds, and one rates it underperform, with no sell ratings on the stock. The mean target sits at $284, or 120% of the current $237price, up from a mean of $243 back in June 2025.
That target has climbed every quarter for the past year even as the stock itself has moved sideways to lower, widening the gap between where analysts think Take-Two stock belongs and where it trades.
TIKR Values Take-Two Stock at $420.64, Pricing In the GTA VI Cycle
TIKR’s mid-case model values Take-Two stock at $421 by March 2031, implying a 78% total return from the current $237 price, or 13% annualized over 4.7 years.
That return profile puts Take-Two stock ahead of typical large-cap software and entertainment names, where mid-teens annualized returns over a five-year window are rare without a specific, dated catalyst driving the re-rating. Most comparable names lean on multiple expansion assumptions; this target leans on bookings growth that’s already guided.
The model’s mid-case assumes 5.3% revenue growth and 11% EPS growth through fiscal 2036, both of which look conservative next to a fiscal 2027 guide of 20% net bookings growth built almost entirely around a single confirmed launch date.
Given that GTA V alone has generated 13 years of recurrent consumer spending since its release, a successor title with a locked date gives the model’s out-year assumptions more room to run than the mid-case currently allows.
Should You Invest in Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
