Key Takeaways for Axon Enterprise Stock as of July 2026
- TIKR’s valuation model prices Axon Enterprise stock at $1,673 by December 2030, a 228% total return from the current $510 price, or 31% annualized over 4.4 years.
- Eighteen analysts rate Axon stock buy or outperform, two rate it hold, and one rates it underperform, with a mean target of $661.
- AI bookings jumped 140% year over year and Dedrone bookings surged 500%, pushing Q1 revenue to $807 million, up 34%, and prompting Axon to raise full year guidance to 30% to 32% growth.
- Axon stock still trades 41% below its high after a 60% max drawdown on April 10, 2026, closing at $510 on July 17, down 6% that session even as the underlying business accelerated.
Axon’s fundamentals just reaccelerated while the stock sits deep in a drawdown. See what TIKR’s model says that gap is worth. Start your free trial on TIKR for free →
Axon Stock Reaccelerates as AI Bookings Jump 140% in Q1
Axon Enterprise (AXON) booked $807 million in first quarter 2026 revenue, up 34% from a year earlier, and beat Street estimates of $780 million by 4%. Management didn’t just clear the bar. It raised full year revenue guidance to a range of 30% to 32% growth on the Q1 earnings call, up from its prior outlook, and pointed to two products doing the heavy lifting.
The first is the AI Era Plan, Axon’s bundled suite of AI tools for police departments, including the report-writing tool Draft One and the real-time translator used at World Cup host cities. President Joshua Isner told analysts on the Q1 call: “AI bookings were up 140% versus Q1 last year, and we are seeing AI move from early interest to a standard part of how large agencies think about their future technology stack.” Nearly every large domestic law enforcement agency now includes AI in its purchases, he said, a shift from the exploratory posture agencies held even a year earlier.
The second driver is Dedrone, Axon’s counter drone platform. Bookings there climbed 500% year over year, and combined hardware and software revenue for the segment rose more than 300%. The product now protects Super Bowl and World Cup sites and closed a $40 million enterprise deal with a major telecom provider in April. Future contracted bookings reached $14.3 billion, up 44% year over year, a leading indicator management ties directly to revenue growth over the coming years.
That combination, an AI platform moving from pilot to standard procurement and a hardware line scaling 5x in bookings, is what separates this quarter from Axon’s prior growth story. The company isn’t just selling more TASERs and body cameras. It’s selling a bundle the Street hasn’t fully modeled yet, and that’s the gap this stock now has to close.
Axon Stock Trades Well Below Its High Even as Guidance Rises
Axon stock hit a max drawdown of 60% on April 10, 2026, and remained 41% below that prior high as of July 17, when shares closed at $510, down 6% on the day.
The drop came despite Axon’s raised full year guidance issued in May, leaving the stock priced well behind the acceleration in AI and Dedrone bookings described above.
Wall Street hasn’t abandoned the name.
Eighteen of the 21 analysts covering Axon stock rate it buy or outperform, two rate it hold, and one rates it underperform, with zero sell ratings.
The mean price target sits at $661, which implies 30% upside from the current $510 close. That target has moved with the stock’s volatility over the past year, falling from $889 in September 2025 to $661 today, but it has stayed well above the trading price at every measurement point since December.
TIKR Values Axon Stock at $1,673 by 2030 on AI Era Growth
TIKR’s mid case model values Axon Enterprise at $1,673 by December 2030, implying a 228% total return from the current price of $510, or 31% annualized over 4.4 years.
That annualized return sits well above what investors typically demand from a company already growing revenue above 30%, reflecting how far the stock has fallen from its highs relative to the business underneath it.
The model’s path depends on the same two drivers behind the Q1 beat: AI Era Plan adoption spreading across nearly every large domestic police agency and Dedrone bookings compounding off a 500% growth base.
Both are still early, with AI product revenue up over 700% off a small base and Dedrone revenue still a fraction of Axon’s connected devices segment, leaving room for the multi-year ramp TIKR’s model assumes.
Should You Invest in Axon Enterprise, Inc.?
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Pull up Axon Enterprise, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
