Key Stats for Take-Two Interactive Stock
- Current Price: $228 (May 22, 2026)
- FY2026 Net Bookings: $6.72B, approximately $750M above initial May 2025 guidance
- FY2026 GAAP Revenue: $6.65B, +18% YoY
- Q4 FY2026 Net Bookings: $1.58B, above high end of guidance ($1.51B–$1.56B)
- Q4 FY2026 Adjusted EPS: $0.80, vs. $0.56 Street estimate
- FY2027 Net Bookings Guidance: $8.0B–$8.2B (~20% growth)
- FY2027 GAAP Revenue Guidance: $7.9B–$8.1B
- TIKR Model Price Target: $454
- Implied Upside: +100% over 5 years (15% annualized)
TTWO Stock Beat Estimates, But the Entire FY2027 Case Rests on One Launch
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) closed fiscal year 2026 with Q4 net bookings of $1.58B, beating the high end of guidance and delivering adjusted EPS of $0.80 against a Street estimate of $0.56, a 43% beat that confirmed the recurrent spending engine is running ahead of schedule.
Full-year net bookings reached $6.72B, approximately $750 million above the initial guidance the company provided in May 2025, according to Strauss Zelnick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, on the Q4 2026 earnings call.
Recurrent consumer spending grew 17% for the full fiscal year and accounted for 78% of net bookings, with NBA 2K up over 30%, mobile up 13%, and Grand Theft Auto Online up 6%, all sharply ahead of initial guidance.
The Q4 quarter was led by the Grand Theft Auto series, mobile, and the Red Dead Redemption series. Lainie Goldstein, Chief Financial Officer, stated on the Q4 earnings call that “recurrent consumer spending growth was strong, increasing 7% over last year and accounting for 82% of net bookings.”
Mobile delivered standout results: Toon Blast grew approximately 25% year-over-year, Color Block Jam grew 15%, and Empires and Puzzles grew 5%, with Zynga achieving its highest net bookings level since the 2022 acquisition, according to Zelnick.
Operating cash flow came in at $624M for FY2026, well above the $450M forecast, reflecting the strong Q4 finish.
The company issued FY2027 guidance for net bookings of $8.0B to $8.2B, roughly 20% growth, led by the November 19 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, with the GTA series expected to represent approximately 36% of net bookings, according to Goldstein on the Q4 earnings call.
Take-Two’s Income Statement Crossed Into Positive Operating Territory for the First Time in Eight Quarters
Take-Two Interactive stock has carried negative operating income since at least mid-2024, and Q4 FY2026 marks the first quarter in the trailing eight-period dataset where operating income turned positive, reaching $10M with a 0.8% operating margin.
Revenue showed a clear acceleration through the fiscal year: $1.34B in Q1 FY2025, holding at $1.35B and $1.36B in Q2 and Q3, then jumping to $1.58B in Q4 FY2025 before a strong FY2026 run of $1.50B, $1.77B, $1.70B, and $1.68B.
Year-over-year revenue growth accelerated dramatically through the middle quarters, reaching 31.1% in Q2 FY2026 and 24.9% in Q3 before moderating to 6.1% in Q4 as the comparison base strengthened.
Gross margins recovered sharply from their low of 50.8% in Q4 FY2025, reaching 62.8% in Q1 FY2026 before settling into a 55% range across the final three quarters of FY2026, finishing at 55.9%.
The operating loss trajectory tells the clearest story: from ($140M) and ($280M) in Q1 and Q2 FY2025, losses narrowed progressively before Q4 FY2026 delivered the first positive print in the dataset at $10M.
Total operating expenses held relatively steady between $930M and $980M across FY2026 quarters, providing the operating leverage that allowed revenue growth to finally pull the income line above zero.
Goldstein noted on the Q4 earnings call that on a management basis, operating expenses rose 7% year-over-year in FY2026, which she described as strong leverage over the prior year.
TIKR’s $454 Target on Take-Two Stock Assumes GTA VI Delivers the $8B Year
TIKR’s valuation model prices Take-Two Interactive stock at $454 by March 2031, implying a 100% total return from the current price of $228, or 15.3% annualized over 5 years.
The mid-case assumes revenue CAGR of 7.7% and net income margins of 20%, assumptions that embed sustained post-GTA VI scale rather than the lumpy development-year cost structure that has kept operating income negative for most of the past two years.
The model bakes in P/E multiple expansion of only 0.5% annually, meaning the $454 target rests almost entirely on earnings growth rather than a re-rating of the multiple.
The FY2027 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI creates the sharpest binary in Take-Two Interactive stock’s investment case in over a decade: the scale trajectory after the launch determines whether the base case holds or whether the high case becomes the new base.
The FY2027 investment case hinges on a single variable: Grand Theft Auto VI launching on November 19 and performing at the scale embedded in $8.0B–$8.2B net bookings guidance, with Rockstar Games representing approximately 36% of that total.
FY2026 execution supports the thesis — Q4 net bookings of $1.58B beat the high end of guidance, GTA Online recurrent spending grew 6% for the full year, and operating cash flow reached $624M against a $450M forecast, with over $1B projected for FY2027.
The risk is structural: recurrent consumer spending is guided to represent only 65% of FY2027 net bookings versus 78% in FY2026, mobile is expected to decline year-over-year, and TIKR’s low case of $379.06 at a 5.9% IRR prices in a scenario where the post-launch revenue base fails to sustain the mid-case 7.7% CAGR.
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