Key Stats for Sandisk Stock
- This week’s performance: 9.56%
- 52-week range: $28 to $432
- Valuation model target price: $451
- Implied upside: 9.1% over 2.4 years
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What Happened?
Shares of memory chipmaker SanDisk (SNDK) rose recently, extending a sharp rally that has lifted the stock more than tenfold since its Nasdaq debut in February 2025.
The move followed multiple analyst price target increases, including a revision from Citi (C), which raised its target to $490 from $280, citing strong enterprise SSD demand and favorable supply conditions.
Separately, Bernstein (AB) lifted its price target from $300 to $580, pointing to tightening NAND supply, rising memory prices, and SanDisk’s positioning as a near-term beneficiary of AI-driven demand.
These revisions mattered because SanDisk’s valuation remains highly sensitive to expectations around memory pricing and data center demand, where supply constraints have reinforced confidence in sustained pricing strength.
Importantly, there were no changes to SanDisk’s guidance, demand trends, or financial outlook, while board appointments and the start of operations at the Fab2 facility with Kioxia (285A) were not tied to revised forecasts.
Overall, the recent move reflects a recalibration of expectations driven by analyst revisions and sector-wide AI optimism, rather than any deterioration or material shift in SanDisk’s underlying business fundamentals.
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Is Sandisk Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through mid-2028, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 25.1%
- Operating margins: 29.9%
- Exit P/E multiple: 18.1x
The model assumes revenue growth of 25.1% annually, operating margins reaching 29.9%, and an exit P/E multiple of 18.1x by the end of the forecast period.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $451 per share, implying 9.1% total upside and a 3.6% annualized return over 2.4 years.
Achieving these assumptions depends on sustained AI-driven memory demand, successful scaling of enterprise SSD shipments, disciplined capacity expansion, and maintaining pricing power amid tight NAND supply conditions.
If execution falters or memory pricing normalizes faster than expected, the stock may remain volatile, indicating the current valuation reflects execution risk rather than optimism embedded in long-term forecasts.
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