Key Takeaways
- Rivian stock is down 49% from its high last December, and Piper Sandler kept its Overweight rating and $20 price target after the third-quarter results.
- The target is 75% above Thursday’s close. It’s a bit above the $19 consensus target, which analysts have raised over the past year even as the stock fell.
- Rivian’s free cash flow was negative $1.12 billion in the third quarter, and its share count has risen to 1.46 billion from 1.24 billion at the end of 2025.
- On valuation the selloff looks overdone, but Piper’s view that dilution risk has eased depends on Rivian drawing its federal loan, expected by early 2027.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) closed at $11.45 on Thursday, 49% below its high last December. After the EV maker’s third-quarter report that evening, Piper Sandler kept its Overweight rating and $20 price target on Friday, 75% above that close.
A share sale, then a forecast that didn’t budge
In July, Rivian sold 86.25 million new shares at $15.50 each, 23% below the stock’s prior close.
Then on Oct. 2, Rivian reported a record 19,248 third-quarter deliveries but kept its full-year range at 65,000-70,000, and the stock slipped.
Piper is betting on R2
Analyst Alexander Potter set the $20 target in July, when he upgraded Rivian from Neutral. He argued the R2 SUV’s launch had gone smoothly, and that “a recent capital raise should fund growth while reducing dilution risk.”
The third quarter backed up the R2 half of that. Revenue rose 38% to $2.16 billion, ahead of analysts’ estimates, and management raised its delivery range to 67,000-70,000.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Rivian. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rivian, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rivian’s Analyst Ratings
Does $20 add up?
Even as the stock fell, analysts’ consensus target climbed to $19 from $14 a year ago.
Piper’s $20 is just above it, and the 25 analysts’ targets run from $13 to $25.
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $5.39 billion in 2025 to $15.7 billion in 2028:
Nothing in this quarter argues for cutting the next two years, though the 2028 estimate has already come down 22% over the past year.
Investors are paying just 1.5x forward sales for that growth, the lowest in three years.
Piper’s $20 works out to about 2.7x forward sales, in line with the stock’s three-year average of 2.7x.
The share count is the catch
Rivian’s free cash flow was -$1.12 billion in the third quarter, against -$421 million a year earlier. It ended September with $7.1 billion of liquidity, counting its credit line and Volkswagen’s $1 billion loan from October. Analysts expect it to burn another $3.2 billion in 2027 and $2.0 billion in 2028.
That’s a thin cushion, and the share count has already risen to 1.46 billion from 1.24 billion at the end of 2025.
My take: Piper has the valuation right, since $20 only asks Rivian to trade at its usual multiple again. But I think Piper is too relaxed about dilution. To build its Georgia plant without selling more stock, Rivian needs its Department of Energy loan, worth up to $4.5 billion.
The first draw from that loan is expected by early 2027 and depends on gross-margin and sales milestones, so fourth-quarter results are the ones to watch.
So what is Rivian stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
