Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $190.04
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,360
- Street Target: ~$196
- Potential Total Return: ~617%
- Annualized IRR: ~59% / year
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What Happened?
As of October 2, Wall Street expects Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to generate about $8.2 billion in 2026 revenue. That is roughly 31% above the consensus on December 31, 2025. Shares closed October 1 at $190.04, up just 6.91% for the year, after a 34.36% first-half slide and a 60.32% rebound in the quarter that ended September 30.
Most of that forecast increase showed up as a cheaper multiple rather than a higher share price, and Palantir’s investor relations materials show why the estimates keep rising.
Forecasts Rose 31% While the Earnings Multiple Nearly Halved
The 2026 revenue estimate climbed from about $6.3 billion to about $8.2 billion this year, and the 2027 estimate rose from about $8.7 billion to about $12.3 billion. Palantir led the way. On August 3, it raised its 2026 guidance to a midpoint of around $8.15 billion, or 82% growth, 11 points above the prior outlook. The analyst pool also grew, from 23 to 29.
The stock still trades at about 100 times NTM normalized earnings, down from about 192 times at the end of 2025. That cut to the P/E ratio reflects two things: higher estimates, and the 12-month window rolling forward into later, larger quarters. Together, they roughly doubled the NTM EPS estimate, from about $0.93 to about $1.90.
Investors needed that cushion after a first half dominated by fears that cheaper AI models would commoditize enterprise software. Analysts remain cautious on price. The mean Street target rose about 7% this year, to around $196, only about 3% above the October 1 close. Ratings stand at 19 Buys, 1 Outperform, 9 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell.
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157% Net Dollar Retention Is Pushing the Estimates Higher
Existing customers drive much of the growth. Net dollar retention, which compares what the same customers spend now with a year earlier, reached 157% in Q2, up 700 basis points from Q1. U.S. commercial customers grew 35% to 653, while revenue from that group grew 149%. Total remaining deal value reached $13.1 billion, up 83%.
CEO Alex Karp said on the Q2 earnings call that “the NDR number is anomalously strong.” He added, “That is also going to shift and, as hard as to believe, become even more positive,” pointing to older customers who used only Foundry and now want more of the platform. If that holds, expansion inside existing accounts gives the 2027 estimate room to rise again.
Karp and Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar also attended President Donald Trump’s September 29 AI meeting at the White House, a policy seat rather than a contract.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $190.04
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,360
- Potential Total Return: ~617%
- Annualized IRR: ~59% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Palantir stock (It’s free!) >>>
The mid case tests whether retention-led growth can outrun a shrinking multiple. It values Palantir at around $1,360 by December 31, 2030, a scenario rather than a forecast.
The model’s longer-range mid-case table, which runs through 2035, assumes revenue compounding around 57% a year with net income margins near 49%. Separately, the Street’s 2030 revenue estimate implies roughly 58% annual growth from 2025, though only three analysts forecast that far.
The two views differ sharply. The model implies about 59% a year, while even the highest Street target, $255, implies about 34% total upside.
The upside is that retention keeps lifting estimates faster than the multiple falls. The downside is that the 48.22% drawdown to June 25 came while Palantir kept beating revenue estimates, so strong results alone do not protect the price.
Conclusion
Palantir has not confirmed its Q3 report date. Benzinga lists November 2. Analysts expect about $2.18 billion in revenue and about $1.31 billion in adjusted operating income, both above guidance of around $2.16 billion and around $1.29 billion.
That bar comes despite CFO David Glazer’s note that, as in prior years, Palantir expects “a significant ramp in expense in the third quarter” from new-hire seasonality. A quarter at guidance would be a miss against the Street. The stock has fallen after two of its last five reports, even though each one beat estimates.
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So what is Palantir stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
