Key Takeaways
- Oklo stock fell 15% in the past week (through Monday’s close) to a new 52-week low. NuScale Power fell 15% over the same week.
- The biggest drop came on Oct. 14, when a hot September inflation report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.26% and hit nuclear stocks far harder than the market.
- Analysts expect about $6.5 billion more cash burn through 2030, more than twice Oklo’s $3.0 billion of cash at June 30, so paying for the build is the main risk.
- The third-quarter report in November and a definitive Centrus fuel deal are the next things to watch.
Oklo (OKLO) stock is down 15.4% in the past week (through Monday’s close), to a fresh 52-week low. NuScale Power (SMR) fell 15.1% over the same stretch. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.7%.
And almost none of it came from anything Oklo did.
Rates hit the nuclear trade hardest
Most of the damage came on Wednesday, Oct. 14. September’s inflation report came in hotter than expected, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.26%, and Oklo fell 8.6% while NuScale dropped about 10%.
That’s the catch with companies whose profits are years away: with bonds paying 5%-plus, those profits are worth less today.
Friday took another 6.8% with no Oklo news behind it, wiping out Thursday’s 3.3% bounce. Monday’s 3% slip had no news behind it either, and Centrus Energy (LEU) fell 4% with it.
Even good news didn’t help. The stock kept sliding after the Department of Energy picked Oklo’s Groves 2 isotope facility for its Nuclear Energy Launch Pad on Oct. 13.
The funding bill is still there
The bigger question is who pays for the build. Analysts expect Oklo to burn roughly $6.5 billion more through 2030. That’s more than its $5.1 billion market value.
And at June 30, it held $3.0 billion of cash and marketable securities.
Sales won’t close the gap soon: analysts expect just $8.9 million of revenue in 2027 and $122 million in 2029.
CFO Craig Bealmear said in August that two customers have already paid into the build. Until that money covers more of the bill, stock sales do the work, starting with a $1 billion at-the-market program signed on Sept. 11. At Monday’s close, selling all of it would mean issuing about a fifth of the company.
Q3 is the real test
The mean price target has slid to $75, from about $89 at June 30 and a peak near $117 in January.
On Monday, Piper Sandler cut its target to $49 from $55 and kept its Overweight rating. Even the lower target is about 80% above Monday’s close.
My take: On the news, the selling looks overdone. But every leg down makes Oklo’s next stock sale cost shareholders more, so I’d wait for customer money to carry more of the build before buying.
The third-quarter report in November is the first place a definitive Centrus fuel deal or new customer-funding terms could show up. And if yields ease, nuclear stocks could bounce as fast as they fell.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
