Key Takeaways
- MARA Holdings has lost 64% of its value in a year, and Piper Sandler cut its target to $11 from $13 today while keeping its Overweight rating.
- The $11 target is roughly 53% above this morning’s price and sits near the bottom of a Street range that runs from $10 to $30.
- A lower bitcoin price led to a $611.3 million second-quarter loss, and investors are still waiting for the AI data center lease management expects by year-end.
- The numbers support Piper’s call, but it depends on bitcoin and on MARA signing its first lease.
MARA Holdings (MARA) has lost 64% of its value over the past year (through Monday’s close), and Piper Sandler just cut its price target for the third time in 2026. Even so, the firm’s new $11 target sits 53% above this morning’s price.
Bitcoin did the first round of damage
MARA’s second quarter shows the problem well. Revenue fell 27% from $227.2 million a year earlier to $174.9 million as bitcoin’s average price dropped 28%, and the company lost $611.3 million, about $343 million of it from marking bitcoin to market.
Management’s answer is the AI pivot. On the Aug. 6 call, CEO Fred Thiel said MARA remains “confident in our ability to sign at least 2 leases before year-end.”
No lease has been announced yet, and the clock on that year-end promise is running. Then October got rough for the whole group, as hotter inflation data and worries about debt-funded AI build-outs hit the miners. MARA went from $11.33 at the end of September to $7.38 at Monday’s close.
Piper still says buy, just at a lower price
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley stuck with his Overweight rating today but lowered his target to $11 from $13, his third cut this year after trimming it to $16 in January and to $13 in July.
Does $11 add up?
The rest of the Street has been lowering its sights too. The analysts’ average target has slipped from $23.32 a year ago to $18.61 now, while the stock fell much further…
That leaves Piper’s $11 near the bottom of a range that runs from $10 to $30. Nine analysts rate the stock Buy or Outperform, against one Underperform and one Sell. And $11 is roughly where MARA traded three weeks ago: it closed at $11.33 on Sept. 30.
Revenue estimates are less friendly. Analysts expect $707 million this year, down from $907 million in 2025, then $805 million in 2027 and just $606 million in 2028…
A signed lease is the most likely thing to lift those numbers.
On TIKR’s normalized estimates, MARA trades at just over 4x forward earnings, and Piper’s target implies 6.3x. The few analysts who publish GAAP forecasts still expect losses in 2026 and 2027, though smaller ones than a month ago.
A modest target, with a bitcoin-sized risk
The risk is the balance sheet. After $600 million of new bitcoin-backed borrowing, 54% of MARA’s bitcoin is pledged as collateral. MARA also expects to take on about $900 million of debt when its $1.5 billion Long Ridge acquisition closes.
My take: the numbers support Piper’s call. It only asks for a return to September’s price at a single-digit multiple, while loss estimates are shrinking.
The test is the leases. If the first one lands before Dec. 31, along with FERC’s approval of the Long Ridge deal, $11 starts to look conservative. If the year ends without one, expect more target cuts.
So what is MARA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what MARA could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
