Key Takeaways
- Barclays cut its Oklo price target to $59 from $76 on Oct. 20 and kept its Overweight rating. The new target is 117% above the Oct. 19 close.
- Oklo stock is down 83% from its October 2025 high, hurt by heavy spending, repeated stock sales, and a sell-off in nuclear stocks on rising rates.
- Analysts now expect a 2026 loss of $0.94 a share, up from a $0.73 loss 90 days ago, and the consensus target has dropped from $117 in January to $75.
- The numbers don’t support Barclays’ call yet, and Oklo’s third-quarter report is the next test.
Oklo (OKLO) stock closed at $27.24 on Oct. 19, 83% below its $159.05 closing high of Oct. 20, 2025. The next morning, Barclays cut its price target to $59 from $76 and kept its Overweight rating. Even after the cut, the target implies 117% upside.
Big bills, more stock, higher rates
Oklo is funding its build-out by selling stock. In the first half of 2026, it spent $126.9 million on property and equipment, and on top of that, it posted an $81.6 million net loss.
On Sept. 11, Oklo set up a new $1 billion at-the-market program, on top of share sales that have already swelled its share count. The stock slipped that morning.
On Oct. 14, a hotter-than-expected September inflation report and a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.26% hit nuclear developers hard, since their payoffs are years away.
Barclays has been bullish all the way down
The firm’s note pointed to Groves, Oklo’s isotope reactor in Texas, which reached first criticality in early August, a little over 11 months after groundbreaking. Barclays has cut before: its target was $146 in January.
Does $59 add up?
Barclays is more cautious than the Street. The consensus target is $75, down from a high of $117 in January…
The 20 targets behind it run from $14 to $130, so analysts are far apart on what Oklo is worth.
The estimates aren’t helping, either. Analysts now expect Oklo to lose $0.94 per share in 2026, much worse than the $0.73 loss they penciled in 90 days ago. Revenue stays small until Fiscal 2028…
With losses ahead and sales of a few million dollars a year, there’s no earnings or sales multiple worth testing $59 against.
The numbers aren’t there yet
The risk is that this story keeps repeating itself. Oklo has lined up $1 billion in new share sales, and its first power plant, Aurora INL in Idaho, was still finishing excavation for the reactor in August.
My take: the numbers don’t back up Barclays’ call today. For the stock to double from here, investors would have to pay up for Aurora long before it sells any power, and that’s a big ask.
The next test is close. Oklo’s third-quarter report is due in a few weeks, and it could quickly shift the mood. Smaller losses and an Aurora INL that stays on schedule would make $59 a far easier number to believe.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
