Key Takeaways
- Equifax shares jumped 10.7% today after its third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.26 beat the $2.20 analysts expected, and U.S. mortgage revenue rose 15%.
- Equifax cut its 2026 revenue guidance because of a weaker mortgage market, but its adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50 is only $0.04 below the old midpoint.
- Equifax credits AI-driven cost savings for holding up earnings, and its adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 33.1% in the quarter.
- Management expects the weak mortgage market to last through the rest of 2026, so the next test is whether it carries into 2027.
Equifax (EFX) shares are up about 11% today, even though the company cut its full-year revenue guidance this morning.
The cut barely reached the bottom line.
The mortgage slump barely touched earnings
Equifax’s third-quarter revenue rose 10% to $1.69 billion, and adjusted EPS of $2.26 beat the $2.20 analysts expected. U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% too. In the earnings release, CEO Mark Begor said that growth came despite “the much weaker mortgage market we saw in the latter half of the third quarter as mortgage interest rates increased substantially.”
He expects that weakness to last through the end of 2026. So Equifax lowered the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance to $6.66 billion, from $6.75 billion. Its fourth-quarter outlook also came in below what analysts expected: revenue growth of 3.5% to 5.4%, and adjusted EPS of $2.07 to $2.17.
But full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50 is just $0.04 below the old midpoint. Begor credits AI-driven cost savings, which he says should let Equifax win back most of the gross margin it loses on lower mortgage revenue. (Its adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 33.1% in the quarter, up from 32.7% a year ago.)
That $8.50 is right in line with the $8.49 analysts expected for 2026 before the report, and they expect earnings to keep climbing after that…
…so nothing in today’s release should push this year’s estimate down much.
VantageScore adds a kicker
On Oct. 8, Equifax said nearly 2,000 mortgage lenders and resellers had used its free VantageScore 4.0 scores alongside paid legacy scores from April through September. It also extended its $1 VantageScore 4.0 mortgage price through the end of 2028.
Equifax co-owns VantageScore with Experian and TransUnion (TRU), which rose 6.2% today ahead of its own Oct. 27 earnings report.
Equifax Stock Is Still Cheap After the Jump
Before today, Equifax traded at 17.7x forward earnings. That’s near the bottom of its five-year range and far below its 27.7x average:
Today’s jump takes it closer to 20x, still well below where the stock has usually traded.
Equifax just showed it can protect its earnings through a mortgage slump, and at under 20x forward earnings, I think the stock has more room to run.
Of course, Begor only gave guidance for the rest of 2026. If mortgage stays weak into next year, the AI savings will have to do even more of the work.
So what is Equifax stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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